In response to my post regarding false predictions not being properly punished, some blog readers took exception to my argument that the hysteria that surrounded Y2K was a false prophesy. Their argument is that all of the preparation leading up to Y2K averted what would have been a disaster.
That just doesn’t ring true to me. Was there not anyone, anywhere who either failed to properly prepare, or maybe happened to overlook some aspect of how Y2K might affect their systems? Did every small business and third world country catch every bug? Did anything go wrong as a result of Y2K? Did anyone ever test a system in advance of Y2K and find that had they not tested, something catastrophic would have happened?
Here is a good article from Larry Seltzer who knows much more than me about the subject and holds the same view.
My recollection is that programmers were getting paid far above standard wage rates due to the great demand for their services with Y2K. Could it be that there were strong incentives on their part to exaggerate the danger? Sounds logical.
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I think that the Y2K bug was one of many potential tragedies that was averted. No, I don’t think the hysteria matched the real consequences of the problem. Very few people truly understood what a break down of computer systems could have done. Since the proper authorities had ample time to deal with the problem a solution, or series of solutions, lessened the problem and we were able to come out on the other side relatively intact.
Those of us who lived through the black out a few years ago probably have a better idea of what can happen when systems break down. For more than a day my city didn’t have functional street lights, traffic lights or television. As well, financial institutions were closed and consumers were forced to live off the cash they had in their pockets. In my case that was about $5.45.
I think that the Y2K bug was one of many potential tragedies that was averted. No, I don’t think the hysteria matched the real consequences of the problem. Very few people truly understood what a break down of computer systems could have done. Since the proper authorities had ample time to deal with the problem a solution, or series of solutions, lessened the problem and we were able to come out on the other side relatively intact.
Those of us who lived through the black out a few years ago probably have a better idea of what can happen when systems break down. For more than a day my city didn’t have functional street lights, traffic lights or television. As well, financial institutions were closed and consumers were forced to live off the cash they had in their pockets. In my case that was about $5.45.
I worked on code – i.e. I was a programmer – that had y2k issues. That is, the programs would not have worked if they hadn’t been fixed and money would have lost.
Sure, there was a lot of hype around y2k and much of it was commercially cunning, but the problems were real. Would we have taken it seriously if there hadn’t been the hype?
In fact, here’s a Y2K problems that still exists in Excel.
- Imagine you are doing long range planning.
- Start up MS Excel and type in the 1/1/29. Exel adds 1st of January 2029 into the cell.
- Now type in 1/1/30. What does Excel come up with? It’s not 1 January 2030.
This problem won’t hit most people because they’re not using dates that far in the future, but what if you – or your pension manager – is using Excel to caculate retirement dates and making investments based on how many years until you retire. I’ll turn 60 in 2029 so my calculations will be fine. What if you’re younger than me?
You would then enter 1/1/2030 … instead of 1/1/30.
I worked on code – i.e. I was a programmer – that had y2k issues. That is, the programs would not have worked if they hadn’t been fixed and money would have lost.
Sure, there was a lot of hype around y2k and much of it was commercially cunning, but the problems were real. Would we have taken it seriously if there hadn’t been the hype?
In fact, here’s a Y2K problems that still exists in Excel.
- Imagine you are doing long range planning.
- Start up MS Excel and type in the 1/1/29. Exel adds 1st of January 2029 into the cell.
- Now type in 1/1/30. What does Excel come up with? It’s not 1 January 2030.
This problem won’t hit most people because they’re not using dates that far in the future, but what if you – or your pension manager – is using Excel to caculate retirement dates and making investments based on how many years until you retire. I’ll turn 60 in 2029 so my calculations will be fine. What if you’re younger than me?
The answer to your question is “yes.”
It was real, in that there were programs written in the 60′s and early 70′s that didn’t consider the century change. (Why? because it meant saving 2 bytes a record at a time when 20 megabytes of disk memory cost tens of thousands of dollars.)
It was imagined, in that most of the catastrophic predictions simply didn’t make sense: elevators weren’t going to fail and stop, because elevators don’t actually care whether its Tuesday or Saturday. And while there might have been exceptions, not all odd behavior is a catastrophic failure.
And it was invented, in part: folks like Ed Yourdon made significant chunks of money blowing the story up, selling books about it and selling consulting services to resolve it.
The answer to your question is “yes.”
It was real, in that there were programs written in the 60′s and early 70′s that didn’t consider the century change. (Why? because it meant saving 2 bytes a record at a time when 20 megabytes of disk memory cost tens of thousands of dollars.)
It was imagined, in that most of the catastrophic predictions simply didn’t make sense: elevators weren’t going to fail and stop, because elevators don’t actually care whether its Tuesday or Saturday. And while there might have been exceptions, not all odd behavior is a catastrophic failure.
And it was invented, in part: folks like Ed Yourdon made significant chunks of money blowing the story up, selling books about it and selling consulting services to resolve it.
I believe three things: some disasters were averted because of the hype; some programmers were overpaid or did unnecessary work; and some real problems occurred. I was surprised at the time that I couldn’t find anyone producing a comprehensive list of the last, but I heard of three major incidents: in the US, a 911 telephone system failed to prioritise calls correctly; in the US, a nuclear power plant suffered a fail-open in its security system; in Japan, a nuclear power plant suffered a control failure in its safety systems. There have, of course, been similar disruptions in the years since Y2K when various other clock systems have rolled over.
I believe three things: some disasters were averted because of the hype; some programmers were overpaid or did unnecessary work; and some real problems occurred. I was surprised at the time that I couldn’t find anyone producing a comprehensive list of the last, but I heard of three major incidents: in the US, a 911 telephone system failed to prioritise calls correctly; in the US, a nuclear power plant suffered a fail-open in its security system; in Japan, a nuclear power plant suffered a control failure in its safety systems. There have, of course, been similar disruptions in the years since Y2K when various other clock systems have rolled over.