In my paper with Tim Groseclose and Pierre-Andre Chiappori, we test the predictions of game theory using penalty kicks in soccer. We find that the players’ actions conform very closely to the theoretical ideal.
There is one big deviation that we see between what players actually do and what the theory predicts: kickers kick the ball right down the middle much less than they should. Or put another way, in practice, kicking it down the middle scores at a higher rate than kicking it either to the left or right (at least in our data set).
Why? If you kick it right down the middle and you don’t score, it is damn embarrassing. So even though the middle is a great play statistically, kickers don’t choose it very often. There are some things that are even more important than winning, like not looking like a fool.
Today’s shootout between Switzerland and Ukraine is the ultimate case in point. The first kicker from Ukraine missed his shot. Then it was the Swiss player’s turn. The story from the AP describes the Swiss player’s shot as follows:
Marco Streller’s effort for Switzerland was worse — low and directly at Shovkovskyi.
The second Swiss player also missed. Here is the AP’s description:
Barnetta hit the crossbar.
Not pejorative at all…hitting the crossbar is apparently acceptable.
But then the third Swiss player kicked it, to the following description:
Ricardo Cabanas looked almost amateurish on his shot directly into the middle of the goal — and again, right at the Ukranian goalkeeper.
My guess is that the Swiss kickers who kicked it down the middle will forever be remembered as the ones who blew the game in the World Cup by amateurishly kicking it right down the middle.
It is not just whether you win or lose, but how you play the game. Which is why from a game theory perspective, with the world laughing at the Swiss, there is no better time for the next shooter to kick it right down the middle one more time if all he cares about is winning.
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. You can also watch it on 
I don’t get it – it’s much easier for a goalkeeper to stop a ball going directly towards him rather then jumping left or right (having to choose the right side) for sideway balls. Kicking to the middle is indeed amateurish.
I don’t get it – it’s much easier for a goalkeeper to stop a ball going directly towards him rather then jumping left or right (having to choose the right side) for sideway balls. Kicking to the middle is indeed amateurish.
“I don’t get it – it’s much easier for a goalkeeper to stop a ball going directly towards him rather then jumping left or right”
The “problem” is that most keepers will guess left or right and jump in that direction. Realistically, at the speed the ball is travelling and from the distance it’s kicked from, the keeper is totally guessing. Sure he can TRY to look at body language for a hint here or there, but when you look at how successful penalty kicks are, on the whole, you realize that most saves are just plain luck.
Thus, if the keeper is going to guess left or right the majority of the time, which is the case, then why not just shoot it where the keeper was, instead of potentially shooting it to where he’s going to be?
By the way, why don’t they ever call the keeper amateurish for leaping to the left when the ball gets slammed into the right corner of the goal? Why do they call that a great penalty kick by the kicker? Because the whole world knows the keeeper’s mostly guessing. And if the keeper’s guessing, it’s best to bank on him moving, which leaves the middle of the goal wide open.
“I don’t get it – it’s much easier for a goalkeeper to stop a ball going directly towards him rather then jumping left or right”
The “problem” is that most keepers will guess left or right and jump in that direction. Realistically, at the speed the ball is travelling and from the distance it’s kicked from, the keeper is totally guessing. Sure he can TRY to look at body language for a hint here or there, but when you look at how successful penalty kicks are, on the whole, you realize that most saves are just plain luck.
Thus, if the keeper is going to guess left or right the majority of the time, which is the case, then why not just shoot it where the keeper was, instead of potentially shooting it to where he’s going to be?
By the way, why don’t they ever call the keeper amateurish for leaping to the left when the ball gets slammed into the right corner of the goal? Why do they call that a great penalty kick by the kicker? Because the whole world knows the keeeper’s mostly guessing. And if the keeper’s guessing, it’s best to bank on him moving, which leaves the middle of the goal wide open.
As far as I can tell, the PKs are basically considered a game of Hot Hands between the kicker and the goalie.
The whole strategy is for the kicker to try and convince the goalie he’s going one way and then kick it the other, since once the goalie commits to a specific direction it’s hard for him to reverse directions in time to stop a kick.
This, combined with the fact that it’s harder for a goalie to stop a kick aimed for the top corners since it’s farther for him to travel, make it the obvious choice.
And on the goalie’s part, it’s all about reading the kicker and trying to predict which we he’s actually going to kick. Once you’ve predicted the correct half of the net, you’re 2/3 of the way there. (Watch a goalie and defense during field play – half of what they do it all about positioning to cut down the possible angles a shooter has at the net, all aimed at channeling him into an easy-to-block shot).
I’m sure there’s scouting reports involved as well, listing a particular player’s habits and weaknesses.
As far as I can tell, the PKs are basically considered a game of Hot Hands between the kicker and the goalie.
The whole strategy is for the kicker to try and convince the goalie he’s going one way and then kick it the other, since once the goalie commits to a specific direction it’s hard for him to reverse directions in time to stop a kick.
This, combined with the fact that it’s harder for a goalie to stop a kick aimed for the top corners since it’s farther for him to travel, make it the obvious choice.
And on the goalie’s part, it’s all about reading the kicker and trying to predict which we he’s actually going to kick. Once you’ve predicted the correct half of the net, you’re 2/3 of the way there. (Watch a goalie and defense during field play – half of what they do it all about positioning to cut down the possible angles a shooter has at the net, all aimed at channeling him into an easy-to-block shot).
I’m sure there’s scouting reports involved as well, listing a particular player’s habits and weaknesses.
…not to mention that the distance to the goal line in a straight-on penalty kick is shorter than the distance to either side. not that it makes that much difference (probably only a couple of meters either way) but this may be to the kicker’s advantage.
Also consider that an outstretched goalie (one who is diving in one direction or the other) covers more lateral space than a goalie who stays put in the middle (probably crouched down a little) so from the goalie’s perspective if at least they get the direction of the kick right, they have a better chance of blocking the ball…
…not to mention that the distance to the goal line in a straight-on penalty kick is shorter than the distance to either side. not that it makes that much difference (probably only a couple of meters either way) but this may be to the kicker’s advantage.
Also consider that an outstretched goalie (one who is diving in one direction or the other) covers more lateral space than a goalie who stays put in the middle (probably crouched down a little) so from the goalie’s perspective if at least they get the direction of the kick right, they have a better chance of blocking the ball…