It seems like not a week goes by without another prediction market being launched.
This week’s entry: CasualObserver.net . Up and running just one week, it focuses on the U.S. midterm elections. The good news is that you can participate for free. The bad news is that if you want to win real money, you have to look elsewhere. (I guess the founder Rick Hinton doesn’t want to be arrested by a justice deparment run amok.)
The only money that will change hands is if you decide to buy some CasualObserver boxer shorts. For Rick’s sake, I hope they sell better than the Freakonomics t-shirts.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
I can personally say that had anyone in the Duquesne University economics department known about t-shirts, you would have bought A LOT.
I can personally say that had anyone in the Duquesne University economics department known about t-shirts, you would have bought A LOT.
*sold a lot
*sold a lot
Hi professor Levitt,
Casual Observer uses Inkling Markets technology. I’ve learned recently that Inkling uses Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule instead of CDA.
MSR is a mix between CDA and scoring rule. It was invented for the US DOD’s DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market (dubbed the “terrorism futures market” by the idiots), which made waves in July 2003, if you can remember.
I’m not a market design expert, and you would like to ask Professor Hanson, but what I got is that MSR is better than CDA for thin markets. Which makes it appropriate for internal corporate prediction markets or thinly traded prediction markets.
For the curious, here is one MSR paper link:
http://hanson.gmu.edu/combobet.pdf
Other than Inkling, MicroSoft Research and Common Knowledge Markets also make use of MSR for their prediction markets.
Hi professor Levitt,
Casual Observer uses Inkling Markets technology. I’ve learned recently that Inkling uses Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule instead of CDA.
MSR is a mix between CDA and scoring rule. It was invented for the US DOD’s DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market (dubbed the “terrorism futures market” by the idiots), which made waves in July 2003, if you can remember.
I’m not a market design expert, and you would like to ask Professor Hanson, but what I got is that MSR is better than CDA for thin markets. Which makes it appropriate for internal corporate prediction markets or thinly traded prediction markets.
For the curious, here is one MSR paper link:
http://hanson.gmu.edu/combobet.pdf
Other than Inkling, MicroSoft Research and Common Knowledge Markets also make use of MSR for their prediction markets.
Addendum:
The play-money prediction exchanges designed around the CDA technology can of course make use of an automated market maker in order to add liquidity, but it complexifies the interpretation and adds side effects.
Addendum:
The play-money prediction exchanges designed around the CDA technology can of course make use of an automated market maker in order to add liquidity, but it complexifies the interpretation and adds side effects.