Six months ago I blogged about how the media reported the crime statistics released by the FBI at that time. All the headlines screamed that a new crime wave was upon us. The facts were that reported violent crime had increased 2.5% and reported property crime fell 1.6%. But that wasn’t very exciting, I guess.
The fact that the most recent FBI release of crime stats was equally unexciting didn’t stop the media from having some fun again over the last two days. Murder rose 1.4%, violent crime overall was up 3.7%, and property crime was down 2.6%. Not great news on the crime front, but nothing panic-worthy.
The headlines summarizing these data:
“FBI Reports Rise in Violent Crime: Murders, Robberies Grow in the First Half of 2006, More Evidence that a Long Decline is Over”
(Never mind that the article goes on to point out that violent crime in L.A. actually fell — hats off to Police Commissioner Bratton.)
From SouthCoastToday.com, a site that covers the New Bedford area:
“A Violent Turn: National Crime Data Mirror ‘Unacceptable’ Local Trend”
To get to the bottom of the unacceptable local trend, just read the first paragraph of the article (boldface added by me):
NEW BEDFORD – Violent crime was up nationally during the first six months of 2006, a trend that has been playing out locally all year long. Murders and robberies continued to rise across the country during the first half of 2006, on pace for an increase in violent crime for a second straight year, preliminary FBI data released yesterday show.
While New Bedford actually has had six murders this year, three fewer than last year, those numbers are deceiving. A violent attack at Puzzles Lounge in February hurt several people seriously but killed no one. The attacker, Jacob Robida, eventually killed his girlfriend and a police officer in Arkansas before turning the gun on himself.
Oops! There is an unacceptable local trend in skyrocketing murder in New Bedford, except for the inconvenient fact that New Bedford actually had only six murders this year, three fewer than last year!
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I heard the story on NPR as well yesterday, and have been looking forward to what you would have to say on the subject. Thanks for the perspective!
I heard the story on NPR as well yesterday, and have been looking forward to what you would have to say on the subject. Thanks for the perspective!
I would guess that demographics account for the trends but do not have time to dig up that data, hopefully you will look at that.
I suspect the decrease in property crimes is at least partly due to reporting. My local cops in Virginia are reluctant to do anything about merely “property crime”. They will take an online report for insurance but that is about it. Could you look at historical correlations between violent crimes and property crimes for a clue? or maybe across jurisdictions with different reporting rules?
I would guess that demographics account for the trends but do not have time to dig up that data, hopefully you will look at that.
I suspect the decrease in property crimes is at least partly due to reporting. My local cops in Virginia are reluctant to do anything about merely “property crime”. They will take an online report for insurance but that is about it. Could you look at historical correlations between violent crimes and property crimes for a clue? or maybe across jurisdictions with different reporting rules?
While the whole fear-mongered “surge” rhetoric is the usual American media hyperbole fact is crime is once again increasing. But not for any of the reasons that are talked about. Crime is increasing and becoming more violent because there is more and more of value in the $ 144 billion and climbing American retail drug black market. Increasing because when police succeed at forcing the prce up by interdicting part of a community supply of hard drugs the addicts respond by passing the price increase on to their crime victims in the form of more street crime. As mandatory minimums raise the stakes of crime addict criminals become more willing to commit greater violence.
I wrote more about this at: More Violent Crime – A Drug War Economic Success Story
While the whole fear-mongered “surge” rhetoric is the usual American media hyperbole fact is crime is once again increasing. But not for any of the reasons that are talked about. Crime is increasing and becoming more violent because there is more and more of value in the $ 144 billion and climbing American retail drug black market. Increasing because when police succeed at forcing the prce up by interdicting part of a community supply of hard drugs the addicts respond by passing the price increase on to their crime victims in the form of more street crime. As mandatory minimums raise the stakes of crime addict criminals become more willing to commit greater violence.
I wrote more about this at: More Violent Crime – A Drug War Economic Success Story
it sounds like crime has increased, but Dr. Levitt suggests the magnitude is not enough that we should be alarmed, if i understand correctly. i wonder if anyone has quantified whether the actual amount of increased resources spent on “homeland security” and not on “local/personal security” would explain the increase in crime…
it sounds like crime has increased, but Dr. Levitt suggests the magnitude is not enough that we should be alarmed, if i understand correctly. i wonder if anyone has quantified whether the actual amount of increased resources spent on “homeland security” and not on “local/personal security” would explain the increase in crime…