I was on an airplane yesterday, and when I landed I saw that there were about 4 million e-mails on my Treo. This meant, I figured, that Levitt had run some kind of quiz on the blog. And indeed he had — this one, asking what his wife and LeBron James had in common.
The airport I landed at was Cleveland (where James plays for the Cavaliers), and from there I traveled by car to give a lecture at the University of Akron. Akron used to be best known for rubber manufacture; these days, it is best known as the hometown of … LeBron James.
So how weird is that? I had never before been to Akron in my life. Now, on the very day I go there, the quiz question on our blog concerns a man whose name has never before been mentioned on our blog, but who comes from Akron.
This struck me as especially weird considering that Levitt blogged just the other day about the improbability of two events: Florida beating Ohio State in this year’s NCAA football and basketball championships, and the economists Emily Oster and Josh Levin growing up on the same block.
Anyone care to calculate the odds on the Akron connection?
and 
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Yes, yes, yes to commenters #2 and #3 and #4. The odss of winning the lottery is astronomical. The odds that the lottery will be won is very high, often better than 50%. Mr. Dubner did not win the lottery. His brain paid out the “lottery”.
He could have landed in a city where Lebron James,
1.was married.
2.met his wife
3.got the most career points
4.got the least career points
5.won the championship
6.lost the championship
7.owns the largest Toyota dealership
8.his son was born, greatest moment of his life
9.his daughter was born, greatest moment of his life
10.Dubner got his autograph at the airport
11.Sacramento where his first NBA game was played
12.Athens, where he played in the Olympics
13.played the 2006 NBA All-star game
14.wore #32 his HS freshman year just like Dubner
15.Dubner was visiting a friend who has met Lebron in person.
16. etc.etc.etc
Mr. Dubner’s brain which is very good at finding patterns like all brains basically just “paid out the lottery”.
Yes, yes, yes to commenters #2 and #3 and #4. The odss of winning the lottery is astronomical. The odds that the lottery will be won is very high, often better than 50%. Mr. Dubner did not win the lottery. His brain paid out the “lottery”.
He could have landed in a city where Lebron James,
1.was married.
2.met his wife
3.got the most career points
4.got the least career points
5.won the championship
6.lost the championship
7.owns the largest Toyota dealership
8.his son was born, greatest moment of his life
9.his daughter was born, greatest moment of his life
10.Dubner got his autograph at the airport
11.Sacramento where his first NBA game was played
12.Athens, where he played in the Olympics
13.played the 2006 NBA All-star game
14.wore #32 his HS freshman year just like Dubner
15.Dubner was visiting a friend who has met Lebron in person.
16. etc.etc.etc
Mr. Dubner’s brain which is very good at finding patterns like all brains basically just “paid out the lottery”.
well to try to calculate it you could look at the number of different places you could lecture, then divide them by city and find the odds that way. So if there are 200 colleges big enough to host you, then the odds would be be 1/200 (assuming U of A is the only big school in town). You could also factor in how often you travel since you probably aren’t in a different place every day.
But I also agree with the other posts that people piece together coincidences and ignore non-coincidences. I think I read somewhere that something with a 1 in a million chance happens to people about once a month. (Which would be if events occurred about every two seconds)
well to try to calculate it you could look at the number of different places you could lecture, then divide them by city and find the odds that way. So if there are 200 colleges big enough to host you, then the odds would be be 1/200 (assuming U of A is the only big school in town). You could also factor in how often you travel since you probably aren’t in a different place every day.
But I also agree with the other posts that people piece together coincidences and ignore non-coincidences. I think I read somewhere that something with a 1 in a million chance happens to people about once a month. (Which would be if events occurred about every two seconds)
if Lebron James and Mrs. Levitt had dinner together in a mandarin (speaking) restaurant in Akron, and Mr. Dubner’s plane landed in the parking lot, and he came in and gave a lecture, then I would believe…
anyone seen babel?- good flick about the richness and paucity of what it means to be “connected” to one another
if Lebron James and Mrs. Levitt had dinner together in a mandarin (speaking) restaurant in Akron, and Mr. Dubner’s plane landed in the parking lot, and he came in and gave a lecture, then I would believe…
anyone seen babel?- good flick about the richness and paucity of what it means to be “connected” to one another
Funny, I only read egretman’s first sentence, but I basically said the same thing, what are the odds? Oh well, here’s my comment, which further describes the lottery scenario.
This is similar to lottery odds idea. People may think, oh wow that person won the lottery what are the odds of that. While it is true that an individual is very unlikely to win the lottery, the odds of SOMEONE winning (say a 1 million dollar jackpot) are very likely to occur. If the odds are one in 10 million and 10 million people enter the lottery, than it is almost guaranteed that someone will win the lottery. Thus, the odds of the city having something in common with Lebron is smaller, although maybe not insignificant, because there is still so many different cities. The question is once you account for the different possible scenarios, as described above, and then account for the whether there are any biases considering what city basketball players come from and what kinds of universities Dubner lectures at.
Funny, I only read egretman’s first sentence, but I basically said the same thing, what are the odds? Oh well, here’s my comment, which further describes the lottery scenario.
This is similar to lottery odds idea. People may think, oh wow that person won the lottery what are the odds of that. While it is true that an individual is very unlikely to win the lottery, the odds of SOMEONE winning (say a 1 million dollar jackpot) are very likely to occur. If the odds are one in 10 million and 10 million people enter the lottery, than it is almost guaranteed that someone will win the lottery. Thus, the odds of the city having something in common with Lebron is smaller, although maybe not insignificant, because there is still so many different cities. The question is once you account for the different possible scenarios, as described above, and then account for the whether there are any biases considering what city basketball players come from and what kinds of universities Dubner lectures at.