For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and user-friendly as anything I’ve seen: Predictify.
You can wager on standing bets (who will be the Yankees’ next manager, e.g.) or “tap collective wisdom” (I hope they’re paying Jim Surowiecki a royalty) by putting a question to the public.
There’s a free version of the question model in which you get 100 responses from the public, as well as a premium version that, if the audience proves to be dependable, might soon become every marketer’s best friend.
The featured bet when I visited the site was established by Scott Adams of Dilbert fame, asking how many copies of his new, non-Dilbert book will be in print by January 2008.
Great bet — as long as you can believe the publisher’s number. (Hint: search for “biggest joke in history” in the link provided.)
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Emile, check out the FAQ on Predictify. They do address time in the sense you mention in your post (people are considered MORE accurate, the earlier they predict). And the accuracy rating, in turn, influences the user’s payout on questions which have money behind them. So time counts although they don’t mention the weight given. Very interesting.
http://www.predictify.com/help.aspx
“Predictify tracks each user’s accuracy on both Premium and Free questions, where accuracy is a function of the correctness of a response and the time of submission (earlier is better).”
Emile, check out the FAQ on Predictify. They do address time in the sense you mention in your post (people are considered MORE accurate, the earlier they predict). And the accuracy rating, in turn, influences the user’s payout on questions which have money behind them. So time counts although they don’t mention the weight given. Very interesting.
http://www.predictify.com/help.aspx
“Predictify tracks each user’s accuracy on both Premium and Free questions, where accuracy is a function of the correctness of a response and the time of submission (earlier is better).”
This is history in the making, folks. An x-group prognostic market (aka betting exchange aka predictability device).
This is history in the making, folks. An x-group prognostic market (aka betting exchange aka predictability device).
I agree with Emile here.
Predictify appears to me to be a more sophisticated polling site. In a market, there is an element of risk and consequent reward. I might be willing to risk $100 on my forecast of the presidential election, but only $10 on my forecast of the World Series. That is taken into account in a prediction market, or market of any type.
Most markets allow buying and selling, which could also “lock in” profits based on price movements. While you can change your vote on Predictify, that doesn’t make you any money, real or virtual. You’re just registered as changing your vote.
While polling certainly is an information aggregation mechanism, and fits into the “Wisdom of Crowds,” it doesn’t really appear to be a “market.”
I agree with Emile here.
Predictify appears to me to be a more sophisticated polling site. In a market, there is an element of risk and consequent reward. I might be willing to risk $100 on my forecast of the presidential election, but only $10 on my forecast of the World Series. That is taken into account in a prediction market, or market of any type.
Most markets allow buying and selling, which could also “lock in” profits based on price movements. While you can change your vote on Predictify, that doesn’t make you any money, real or virtual. You’re just registered as changing your vote.
While polling certainly is an information aggregation mechanism, and fits into the “Wisdom of Crowds,” it doesn’t really appear to be a “market.”
Jed and EJSS, a prediction market consultant, and the CEO of a struggling prediction market company, make valid points, but WHO CARES? The general public certainly doesn’t. You can continue to quibble all you want and ride the high horse, but if Predictify works, it works, and that’s all anyone cares about. Let’s at least congratulate them on coming up with a unique model.
Jed and EJSS, a prediction market consultant, and the CEO of a struggling prediction market company, make valid points, but WHO CARES? The general public certainly doesn’t. You can continue to quibble all you want and ride the high horse, but if Predictify works, it works, and that’s all anyone cares about. Let’s at least congratulate them on coming up with a unique model.