The abortion rate in the United States is at a thirty year low — though even with the decline, we are still talking about a large number of abortions in absolute terms, or 1.2 million per year. To put this number into perspective, there are about 4 million births per year in the U.S.
John Donohue and I have argued that the legalization of abortion in the 1970s reduced crime in the 1990s. The logic is simple: unwanted children have an increased risk of growing up to be criminals, and legalized abortion reduces the number of unwanted children. Consequently, legalized abortion lowers crime in the future.
So what does the steady decline in abortions performed in recent years predict for future crime patterns? The answer is not obvious, because it depends on why abortion rates are falling, and I’m not sure we know the answer to that question.
If abortion rates are falling because it has become harder or more costly to get an abortion, then a falling abortion rate is bad news for crime. As the “price” (whether in monetary terms, social stigma, having to travel a long distance, etc.) rises, women who otherwise would have sought an abortion will not get one. This suggests that more unwanted children are being born, and thus crime rates may rise in the future.
On the other hand, there are other reasons why the number of abortions might fall, and none of these have dire crime implications. For instance, because abortion has been legalized since the 1970s, there may be fewer women today who are seeking abortions — the women who might have been at highest risk for unwanted pregnancies today may never have been born.
A second scenario in which low abortion rates don’t lead to high crime is an increase in reliable birth control. For instance, following the increased spread of AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases in the 1990s, condom use may have risen. More condoms would lead to fewer conceptions, including fewer unwanted conceptions. The result would be both a lower abortion rate and a lower number of unwanted births.
A third possibility is that the demographic most likely to obtain abortions is conceiving less for other reasons — including, possibly, less sex. My student Amee Kamdar has a fascinating paper in which she shows that incarceration of twenty-something males greatly reduces the number of teenage births. Indirectly, the continuing rise in incarceration may be contributing to reduced rates of both teen births and teen abortions.
As this discussion points out, the relationship between abortion rates and future crime is subtle. Subtle enough, in fact, that I believe that many researchers studying this issue do not understand it themselves.
Donohue and I present evidence that the rise in abortions in the years immediately following legalization was due to the fact that abortions got “cheaper.” As such, during that period, more abortions implied less crime. Whether that is still true today is quite questionable. My hunch is that the recent declines in abortion are not really a result of abortions becoming more expensive. There are fewer abortion providers today, so maybe that makes it harder to obtain an abortion. On the other hand, when demand for a good (in this case, abortions) falls, you expect the number of providers to shrink. It is unclear which is causing which.
Perhaps more importantly, one might think that the introduction of RU-486 represents an important technological shock that lowers the cost of getting an abortion. Yet there are fewer abortions.
So, ultimately, although this is a bit of a guess, I would surmise that the low abortion rate today is being driven by a decrease in unwanted conceptions. If that is true, then these low abortion rate statistics are good news for future crime rates.
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Higher levels of prosperity and increased acceptance of out-of-wedlock births may also be contributing factors.
Wasn’t this nonsensical link proven wrong 2 years ago?
“This myth of causation between the 2 was debunked years ago.”
By who? When? Where?
My guess: Rush Limbaugh, in the 90s, on the radio.
When I was in college, I had a roommate who listened to a song called ” Kill the Smurfs “. The last verse went ” Kill the poor, kill the poor, kill kill kill kill the poor.” I never thought that killing the poor would be suggested as a means of lowering crime. I find Mr. Levitts views appalling. And it is concerning to me that such attitudes are considered worthy of publication in the New York Times. Pray for our country.
You have to parse the data for race.
Certain races account for majority of crime, ilegitimate births, incarceration.
Not being racist, just a realist.
If abortion rates are highest among blacks, could overall abortion rates be lower because blacks make up a smaller percentage of the American population compared to a generation ago?
Mr. Casper talks about “genocide” which is the way religious people look upon abortion. If we are going to consider abortion from a religious point of view and look in the bible, we find that abortion is not mentioned, so, how are we going to know what the bible’s god feels about? Since nothing is mention about the fetus, let’s go to the next closest thing which is a baby and we find the following:
Numbers 31:17 Now therefore kill every male among the little ones.
Deuteronomy 2:34 utterly destroyed the men and the women and the little ones.
Deuteronomy 28:53 And thou shalt eat the fruit of thine own body, the flesh of thy sons and of thy daughters.
I Samuel 15:3 slay both man and woman, infant and suckling.
2 Kings 8:12 dash their children, and rip up their women with child.
2 Kings 15:16 all the women therein that were with child he ripped up.
Isaiah 13:16 Their children also shall be dashed to pieces before their eyes; their houses shall be spoiled and their wives ravished.
Isaiah 13:18 They shall have no pity on the fruit of the womb; their eyes shall not spare children.
Lamentations 2:20 Shall the women eat their fruit, and children.
Ezekiel 9:6 Slay utterly old and young, both maids and little children.
Hosea 9:14 give them a miscarrying womb and dry breasts.
Hosea 13:16 their infants shall be dashed in pieces, and their women with child shall be ripped up.
Then there are the dire warnings of Jesus in the New Testament:
“For, behold, the days are coming, in which they shall say, Blessed are the barren, and the womb that never bare, and the paps which never gave suck.”–Luke 23:29
Let’s face it, with all this, do you think the christian god cares about abortion? Why then, the religious people do?
I’m sure this has been discussed by someone smarter than me, but does the increasing acceptance of teen pregnancy have anything to do with the decrease in the abortion rate? I think it does. Without placing a value judgment or speculating on the causation, I think it safe to say that stigma attached to teen pregnancy has decreased significantly, i.e. high school programs specifically for pregnant mothers.
I’m coming at this from the point that a percentage of “unwanted” pregnancies can better be thought of as “unplanned”. “Unwanted” implying a more active displeasure than “unplanned”. These “unplanned” pregnancies are getting less difficult to deal with socially, reducing the pressure to terminate in abortion.
The effect on the crime rate? Beat’s me.