It is devilishly hard to lose weight.
A randomized control year-long study looked at the impact of four different diets (Atkins, Ornish, Weight Watchers, and Zone Diets) on a group of overweight and obese subjects who were looking to lose weight. The diets produced only “modest” average weight loss of about 6.4 lbs (2.3 percent of original body weight) and found no statistically significant difference in weight loss for the four different diets.
People do a pretty good job of losing weight for about half a year, and then their weight tends to drift back toward their pre-diet number. The difficulty of sustaining weight loss can be seen in this figure taken from a 2-year randomized study of the Weight Watchers program:
Source: Stanley Heshka, et al., Weight Loss With Self-help Compared With a Structured Commercial Program: A Randomized Trial, 289 JAMA1792 (2003)
The lower line (marked “Commercial”) shows the average weight loss of the Weight Watchers Diet group, while the upper line (marked “Self-Help”) shows the average weight loss for the control group dieters. In this study, Weight Watchers does produce a statistically significant weight loss (and a loss that is greater than the control group), but it is disappointingly small – the average loss after a year is less than 6.5 lbs. Most overweight people who start a diet want to lose at least 10 percent of their body weight. But only 16 percent of the Weight Watcher’s group (and only 6 percent of control group) lost 10 percent or more of their body weight at the end of two years.
My personal experience with dieting has followed a similar pattern. Like many others, I went from being a skinny twenty-something who couldn’t gain weight to a forty-something who couldn’t keep it off. In the last decade, I’ve yoyo-ed several times. I’d take off a bunch a weight, but by the end of the year I’d put it all back on plus a little extra.
Until this last year, when I did something different. As described in this L.A. Times op-ed, I put $500 each week on safely losing and keeping off my extra weight. You can see what happened in this graph:
I originally had to lose a pound a week (or else lose money). Then I had to keep my weight below my contractual target of 185 pounds.
In contrast to Weight Watchers, which can cost about $500 a year and helps you lose on average 6 or 7 lbs (about 3 percent of your initial weight), I put $500 at risk each week. In equilibrium, I’ve lost 25 pounds (12 percent of my pre-diet body weight) and so far it has cost me nothing.
The rapid weight loss at the beginning of the graph is not remarkable; I’ve lost weight quickly several times before. What’s remarkable is that I kept it off for the second half of the year. And I’ve signed up again this year to do the same thing. You can follow my progress here.
As Levitt has written, I also helped create a Web site called StickK.com, where you can enter into your own commitment contract to do all kinds of things.
For me, it’s been surprisingly easy — five hundred bucks is a lot of money. And while the prospect of losing 25 pounds is daunting, it’s not that hard to lose a pound a week when the alternative is to lose $500. Indeed, StickK contracts invert the normal commitment problem. Usually it’s easy for people to make New Year’s Resolutions, and much harder for them to live up to them. With StickK, it’s actually relatively easy to keep your commitments – especially if you put enough at risk, or if you designate an anti-charity to get your money if you fail. The harder part is getting yourself to make the binding resolution. Some people are reluctant to enter into a contract that commits them to real change.
Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution thinks it’s so hard to get people to change that he has predicted that the site will not succeed:
I’ve long predicted this won’t work; one group of potential customers doesn’t really want to change, the other group is unwilling to give up control. It’s not exaggerating to say that human nature is on the line here, and that if I am wrong this is probably the most important idea you will ever encounter.
But the good news is that the first returns are very positive. In a little more than a month since launching, people have given us $80,000 to help stickK to their goals. What’s more, most people are keeping their commitments and getting their money back.
People who really want to change are willing to give up some of their ex-post freedom. StickK not only helps you make credible commitments for yourself, it also lets you communicate that commitment to other people. Commitment contracts aren’t just for people who have trouble keeping their commitments; they are for anyone who is concerned about hearing some promise that just sounds like so much “cheap talk.” We’ve all been in the “Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown” situation, where we’ve heard people make promises that we suspect are insincere, or we think the promisor one way or another isn’t likely to follow through. One of the coolest things about StickK is that it gives the rest of us a new way to respond to cheap talk. At last, we can demand that the promisor put some money where his or her mouth is.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
I would argue that, in addition to diet and exercise, willpower is also required. I am currently using a popular weight loss program (I won’t mention the name so as not to appear to be spamming), and thus far am successful. A plan is only as good as your ability to stick to it.
In addition to eating right and getting exercise, the plan I’m currently on is also teaching me much about what size portions I really need. My problem before was not eating badly, it was eating too much.
It comes down to discipline, a new trick that this old dog is learning quite well. I hope to use this program to reach my goal weight, and then use what the plan has taught me about eating habits to keep the weight off for good. (The one thing I will say about the particular plan I’m on is that it does not promote any sort of “gimmicky” nutrition – I can eat what I wish but am accountable for the choices I make.)
With regard to this statement:
“…no statistically significant difference in weight loss for the four different diets.”
Often, “statistical insignificance” just means that the sample size wasn’t big enough to say for sure that there was a genuine difference between the factors being tested (in this case, the four diets). I’d be curious to see how much of a difference there actually was between the diets… I’ll bet that if the sample size was increased, the means of the data would still hold up (except with a smaller standard error).
People (and researches) confuse weight loss with fat loss, or, actually, no loss.
In order to consistently lose fat (not just weight) on any diet, you must keep your body in a perpetual state of lipolysis, or what Dr. Atkins used to incorrectly call ketosis.
To accomplish this feat you must consume: (a) ZERO carbs; (b) under 60 grams of protein to prevent muscle wasting, and (c) under 70-80 grams of fat to enjoy some level of satiety, enhance the digestion of proteins, maintain the integrity of intestinal mucosa, and prevent the formation of gallstones.
Even then, you may be losing under 800-100 g of fat daily. If you have 20-30 kg of extra weight, that’s 200-300 days on a very restrictive diet. Tough!!! Those figures above must be, of course, adjusted to person’s weight and levels of activity!)
Alas, nothing remotely close is recommended by either the Atkins, South Beach, Ornish, or Zone diets.
Why, then, do so many people report losing between 5 to 15 lbs (2.2- 6.8 kg), particularly in the beginning (during the induction stage)?
They report phantom weight loss, meaning mainly the loss of body water, foods in transit, and accumulated stools. Fat loss – almost none… No wonder it’s so difficult.
Here is a real life example: David Blaine, who spent 44 days without food, emerged from his glass cage 55 lbs (25 kg) lighter. Assuming 20 of those pounds were phantom weight loss (he’d been stuffing himself with loads of food just before going in), the magician was losing 0.79 lb (358 g) per day. And that was definitely at the high-end of the scale-hanging in a transparent box in the center of London under the 24/7 scrutiny of gawking crowds requires a great deal more energy than a simple, straightforward fast.
I explain this phenomena (phantom vs. real fat loss) in greater details in my book entitled Fiber Menace, Chapter 3, Atkins Goes To South Beach. You can obtain the entire PDF of this chapter here:
http://www.fibermenace.com/main/newsletter.html
The actual research came out from my forthcoming book Fixing Up The Atkins Diet, also describe above.
Konstantin Monastyrsky,
the author of Fiber Menace.
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs by Taubes should be required reading for people looking to lose weight. It’s not a diet plan. It’s a reeducation plan. You will think long and hard about fries (AaronS #2), or about grains, whole or otherwise (Victor #3), and probably even exercise (again, Victor #3).
Cut your sugar. Don’t eat grains. Or starchy vegetables or fruits. Eat meat. Eggs. Leafy veggies. fruits. cheese. dairy. With a plan.
- poster has lost 55+ lbs, maintained for almost a year now.
Correction to my post above:
– Even then, you may be losing under 80-100 g of fat daily. (not 800-100 g). Sorry…
Konstantin Monastyrsky
The author of Fiber Menace
I’m echoing the “big and healthy” thought – I’m 250 lbs, my blood pressure is 110/70, my cholestorol is perfect, my glucose levels are great – I take medication for an underactive thyroid (inherited from my mother), but that’s really it. I also exercise regularly and try to eat well (although I can’t say I’m perfect about that). Being skinny isn’t the be-all and end-all of health that some people seem to think it is.
I like this idea, except for the lack of supervision. Let’s say you’ve taken out a contract and you have to give up $500 each week if you don’t meet your goal. Now it’s time for the weigh-in and you’re above goal. What’s your motivation to tell the truth at this point? If you tell the truth, you lose $500. If you lie, you keep $500. For many, it will be worth it to lie and hope to get under goal for the next week.
If you control for exercise, then being overweight does not give you any increased risk of health problems.
So there’s no reason to arbitrarily decide to lose weight. Instead you should exercise more. This might result in losing a bit of weight (or it might not), but you will be healthier regardless.