We’ve blogged fairly regularly about prediction markets, so the next step would seem pretty logical: make our own.
Enter the folks at Predictify (see the latest news here), who have been kind enough to create the official Freakonomics Prediction Center. It can be found in the right-hand column of our home page.
We’ll post questions and you’ll supply the predictions. You need to register to play and the money, sadly, isn’t real. (We tried, but the Times seems to have some crazy prohibition against gambling!)
Since there’s no money to be won, we’ll at least give away a piece of schwag to one person each month who submits a good new prediction question. Send your suggestions for questions to editor@freakonomics.com.
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Asimov had a clue.
Perhaps this thread is one of many that leads us to the development of “psychohistory”
Now all we need is a Harry Seldin to see the math inside the cloud of posts…
Seriously, this might be a harbinger for larger thinking…
“Predictify”? Did George W. Bush name it?
Questions: When will we see a commercially viable, affordable, mass-produced, fossil fuel free car come to market? When will the next nuclear power plant go online? Will Freakonomics hit number 1 on Top Blogs?
Prediction: When will Dick Cheney succumb to his acid reflux?
Will Hillary run again in ’12?
It’s not really descriptive b/c it isn’t market based. 82% of people saying that something will happen doesn’t mean that the market predicts an 82% chance of it occuring.
Mc Cain will not win the Presidency, but Democrats have lost it. How can we be certain? Split vote, Clinton exhaustion, foggy plans from Barack, if any, Bush/Clinton twins at dearth….No one wants to start over again. Let’s wait four years if we have four years. It won’t be our worst mistake.
When will people understand that life without cars is a do-able, stress-reducing, health-improving, life-saving proposition?