Justin Wolfers called a recession here not long ago.
Ben Bernanke seems about ready to call it himself. Now a reader named Alexis Tatarsky has put the question to all of you on our Freakonomics Prediction Center:
On a scale of 1 to 10, with the recession of 2001 being a 4 and the Great Depression an 8, what will be the change in G.D.P. for 2008?
So get yourself over to the Predictify Center and cast your vote.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
I say a 2.
We’ve yet to see and realize the worst so I’d go with a 6. We keep putting off the fall out of the housing market but it’s just going to make the boom that much bigger.
I’d say 2 or 3. I will be the first to admit that I do not understand all of the factors that have brought about the current slump, nor the forces that will decide how bad it gets. I am, however, skeptical as I am very aware of the fact that, as we become more interconnected and information becomes more publicly accessible, an inevitable bi-product is and will continue to be even more preposterous fear-mongering and sensationalizing on the part of the press than that for which they are already infamous. I think a large percentage of the worrying and fear is artificial and unwarranted. There will be hard times but nothing on par with the rumors of a second great depression I hear at the water cooler. Then again, I may be a complete dolt.
I am going with a 6.
and it is based mostly on this article about Banks being reluctant to actually foreclose on homes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc
If they are pushing back the inevitable because they don’t want to flood the market with homes, especially ones that the occupants have trashed upon leaving, this is going to be another huge mess.
My wife is in Real Estate and every single listing she has (except one) is a distressed homeowner looking to downsize. They can’t reduce the prices because they borrowed up the yinyang and used their homes as ATMs. The buyers are still waiting for the prices to come down. result: stalemate.
If 2001 was a 4 and the Great Depression was an 8, is this scale like logarithmic? If so, I’ll give it maybe a 4.3? Don’t mean to nitpick… I just didn’t get enough sleep…
Intensity or duration?
I-5 / D-6
Put me down for a -4. Thats right. Economic growth throughout 2008.
Not much more than a 3 or 4, if that.