The New York Sun reports that gas may hit $10 a gallon before too long, putting it in line with European prices.
The ground is already shifting. Employers find that getting employees out of their cars and onto company-owned, Wi-Fi-enabled buses boosts productivity and morale.
Fewer and fewer teenagers are getting driver’s licenses, and public transportation ridership is at its highest level since the 1950′s.
Is this a temporary shift, or the start of something more far-reaching?
James Kunstler, meanwhile, who weighed in here on the spike in U.S. urbanization, sees rising gas prices as just the kick in the pants we need to kill off suburbia.
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What about telecommuting? If everyone that was able to actually worked two days a week from home, how much would we cut fuel consumption? This is one measure for which there is no economic cost (I think most people would probably be more productive, not less), and all that’s holding us back is the workplace culture of ‘face time’. Since cultural attitudes can be changed, we ought to get about it – perhaps through celebrity public service announcements, politicians’ use of the bully pulpit, earnest pronouncments by Sierra Club and the like, etc. – all the measures that are now being used to heap ‘green guilt’ upon us.
When I lived in LA, I had no car and went everywhere on buses. Living as I did in West LA I was served by the Metro, Culver City, and Santa Monica bus lines. I cannot say I ever had any trouble with it (except for the occasional jam-packed bus during evening rush hour). LA has a reputation for not being mass-transit friendly, but to be honest, I cannot see how! It worked great for me while I was there.
But my home state of CT, where I live now, is something else entirely. I live in one suburb and work in another; mass transit is utterly useless (unless I take one bus all the way to Hartford, then transfer to another going out, which would take 2 hours each way — nope, not doing that!).
Our state government is constantly trying to beef up mass transit ridership, but it staunchly and ferociously refuses to acknowledge why people avoid it … which is because of the common scenario of which I’m part (i.e. live in a suburb and work in another). It doesn’t serve a majority of commuters.
This CANNOT, and WILL NOT, change until CT eliminates its “hub-&-spoke” transit model in favor of one which follows routes that people actually use. Of course, a grid-oriented transit system would require more buses driving more routes, which would make it expensive … but the current system is useless to 99% of the state, despite the fact that it’s already a money pit.
So we can either keep spending millions of dollars a year on a half-baked, outdated system that will never live up to government’s vision, or spend tens of millions a year on something that might actually be useful and effective. Guess which of those choices the honchos in Hartford will make … !
So the bus is slow, dirty, and filled with unscrupulous characters. I will pay a premium to avoid it. Also, even if the bus was quick, clean, and filled only with friendly, unfrightening people, what do I do with my car payment?
I hate the bus. However, light rail I can stand, and would vote for a measure to extend the rail out here.
“Is this a temporary shift, or the start of something more far-reaching?”
Unless more dinosaurs start dying soon, it is obviously the latter.
Mass Transit really is a problem in the suburbs more than anything else. I’ve lived in a bunch of cities and have never really found too much problem with the mass transit – both in functionality and in public perception. It’s when you get out to suburbia that you have a problem. The busing systems never work the way you need them to. They add HOURS to the commute – so the time/cost analysis makes it more affordable to drive, even at $10 a gallon.
Until we see a change in how mass transit is done – we’re not going to see much change outside of cities where having a car was probably a luxury anyway.
My employer in DC offers a very nice incentive for using public transportation – $100/month on a Metro card. I live and work in the District so I never end up using the entire amount, including personal trips. I don’t even own a car now.
I know such a system can’t work for everyone (as DJH mentioned), but I believe an incentive plan like mine would drive up demand for public transportation, making more comprehensive systems cost-effective. In return, the government could offer tax breaks that equal the amount of money in highway maintenance on a per vehicle basis.
From the Sun article: “For example, European drivers are already shelling out $9 a gallon (which includes a $2-a-gallon tax).”
I think they’re understating the tax there.
For instance, in the UK, the petrol tax is 54 pence per liter, or $4 / gallon. That’s not including the 17.5% VAT.