Tomorrow is a big day for me — I’m running the Stockholm marathon.
Here’s a simple wisdom of crowds experiment: A free piece of Freakonomics schwag to whoever comes closest to guessing my finishing time. Leave your guesses in the comments anytime before the race begins (2 p.m. Stockholm time = 8 a.m. EST).
And now, the form guide:
The only other marathon I ever ran was the Sydney marathon, over a decade ago, and that took me 4 hours, 35 minutes.
I have been following a fairly good training program, and have been running for about a year. But I should admit that due to paper deadlines, conference travel, and occasional injuries, I’m only about 75 percent compliant.
My only “race” during my preparation was a ten miler, which took me 79 minutes.
But don’t expect me to keep up that pace: My longest training run was 32 km, and that took me 2 hours, 59 minutes. And by the last couple of kilometers, I was really struggling, running close to 6 minutes per kilometer.
I will definitely run the first half no quicker than 5:26 per kilometer. (If I find myself going faster, I’ll definitely slow down.)
The weather forecast: Sun, and a lot of it.
And now, add your guesses in the comments. My research assistant will figure out the mean and median estimates. And I’ll report back (when I’m able) on how the race went.
My prediction: The median estimate will be closer than 85 percent of the individual guesses.
Oh, and if you happen to be in Stockholm and see a rather tired looking Aussie huffing and puffing his way around the course (long hair, blue shorts, white t-shirt, gray cap, bib number 10864), give me a cheer — I’ll need it.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
Here’s one- Ever try to go and see an opera in central park- been there/done that only once and never again- felt like an ant in a heap- didn’t like it— but then again- I feel like that every time I go to get burgher or D world (on and off tv). I went there as a kid- was great- had my first tuna melt- today- it’s all about selling the masses a bill of crumbs- thinkin we’re all d’ .
My dad taught me- when you see a line—-Run- and so I am still runnin………………………………………………………………………….
4 hours 21 minutes 30 seconds.
I think you’ll best your time from ten years ago. I think you also mentioned in previous posts that you have a GPS watch, so I’m guessing that is a good ‘commitment device’ to keep you very close to your per km minimum time. Good luck!
PS – you didn’t mention anything notable about the course, so I’m going to assume it isn’t hilly. It was hard for me to tell units for the course elevation on the website, but it doesn’t look too hilly.
3:58:30.
You appear to be training with a goal of a sub-4:00 hour marathon. Your training runs show that it is possible, even likely. Absent 70 degrees or higher temperatures early in the race, I predict your body will figure out a way to barely crack the 4:00 hour level.
4 hours, 45 minutes
Easy- 4:26:34
4 Hours 23 Minutes
Good luck and have fun!
I’ll go with 4 hours and 18 minutes.
4:51:13. Good luck!