I just recently got around to reading Michael Lewis‘s immensely entertaining book The Blind Side, even though it has been out for a few years now.
The book highlights how N.F.L. teams only slowly became aware of the immensely important role that offensive left tackles play in protecting the quarterback from blind-side hits. Although there is brief mention in the book that left tackle is the second highest-paid position after quarterback, it is a popular book and thus light on formal statistics.
Curious about the numbers, I put one of my loyal assistants Trevor Gallen on the problem, and here is what he reports back after crunching the numbers for every player in the starting lineup for the first game of the 2007-8 season:
1) As Michael Lewis argued, starting left tackles are indeed paid more on average than any other position on the field except for quarterbacks. The average starting quarterback makes about $5 million a year. The average starting left tackle gets $4 million. Defensive linemen and wide receivers also do pretty well.
2) There aren’t enough left-handed quarterbacks to do a rigorous analysis, but the blind-side theory is supported by the sparse data that exist on lefty quarterbacks. On those teams, right tackles tend to get paid much more than left tackles. Overall, the median blind-side tackles get paid over twice as much as the median non-blind-side tackles.
3) Punters and kickers make the least money — then safeties.
4) Perhaps the biggest surprise to me is how little running backs make. They are down toward the bottom of the list; I would guess that the wear and tear they face tends to shorten their careers, so they have fewer years over which to earn.
(Note: there are various ways to tally up N.F.L. salaries; Trevor used as the salary how much a player counts against the salary cap.)
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Not being a fantasy player I haven’t looked into this, but I wonder if the RB squad on a team now commands money equivalent in relative terms to a well paid top rate RB of old, a Walter Payton or Emmit Smith type. Since the goal is gross yards is 1 @ 1500 equal in worth to 3@500 each?
A blind side offensive tackler is crucial to giving the QB some room to think and properly execute a play. Since blind side OT’s are essential in order to carry out the QB’s job, there is no doubt that teams are willing to pay top dollar for a good one.
There are very little kids who grow up and say: “I want to be a professional blind side offensive tackler when I grow up!” It just doesn’t happen. Therefore, blind side OT’s are scarce, but every single team needs one in order to let the QB to its job. Consequently, NFL teams have to make the decision of buying a good blind side OT and actually giving the QB more than 1.5 seconds to carry out the play, or they could let their QB get mauled down by the opposing defensive line.
Re #4. The other main question in addition to annual salary is total lifetime earnings and the size of standard deviation between positions. So RB not only make the least money per year, I believe they also make the least money by far over the course of their careers. The fact that RB have a statistical peak at 24-25 if I remember correctly means that most RB have passed their peak by the time they sign a second, non-rookie scale contract. Combined with how interchangeable rookie RB are it is easy to see why they wouldn’t be paid well. I also wonder whether RB have a bigger standard deviation than other players, or whether the astronomical amounts that Manning, Brady and Farve are paid means that QBs have a bigger normal range. And I’m going to totally stab in the dark and say that punters have the smallest standard deviation and that blind side tackles have a small standard deviation as well. I’d be fascinated to find out from the salary data.
Did you look at the main variable in your contract: your draft position? Left tackles tend to be drafted in the first rounds so they get higher signing bonuses and thus more guaranteed cash. Running backs tend to come from all over the draft board, including from the undrafted – it’s hard to judge a running back until he’s actually in the NFL and you can see how he reads the blocking, how he uses his feet, etc.
Safeties have historically been tweeners, guys a little bigger and a little too slow to play corner but too small for outside linebacker so they get drafted in lower rounds if at all. That has changed dramatically over the past 4 years when guys like Sean Taylor were picked in the top 5. The reason is pretty simple: the rules were changed so the defensive backs can’t touch a receiver past 5 yards so passing and that has altered the passing game. With more teams now spreading the field with up to 5 receivers, you need more cover guys and not all of them need to be cornerback fast. You also need guys who can come up to the line to play against the run so that emphasizes the safety. If you play 5 defensive backs, you can bring a safety up and he can perhaps rush the passer, support run defense or cover a man. With so much passing, the pass rush is emphasized and that tends to leave gaps and a safety can help fill a gap if it’s a run. Lots of reasons but the bottom line is that safety salaries are going up, as witness Bob Sanders for Indy.
With John Lynch likely out of the league, you’ll also see more safeties getting into the Hall of Fame. They are neglected. But then so are most defensive positions.
Matthew @ 9; you’re close. 1500 gross is the important number, or more likely, yards per carry or per catch. The coaches want to see x amount of production from the position, not necessarily from the player. Tom Landry used to mandate that his backs average something like 3.2 yards per carry and I’m sure that some similar metric is still used. Back then, running backs mostly ran but now they have to be able to catch the ball as well as run it.
An interesting behind the scenes look at the NFL is John Feinstein’s “Next Man Up: A Year Behind the Lines in Today’s NFL”. The book features, among other, Jonathan Ogden, the great Baltimore Raven left tackle, arguably the best to ever play that position. I grabbed a copy out of the remainder bin not so long ago.
@5: Well, how many Bears QBs have been decimated? I honestly don’t know. If you don’t know either, we could deduce the number with some simple math. We could take the total number of Bears QB parts that currently exist (assuming none have been disposed of) and then multiple divide by 10.
PS: Sadly, so many people misused the word “decimated” for so long, that technically, your usage was not incorrect. Language evolves – usually inversely to the extent our collective vocabularies devolve. sigh.
Warren is correct:
The constraint on the running game tends to be the ability of the line to block and open up holes. There is a large supply of fast people willing to carry the ball. See Denver’s long list of 1,000 yard RBs.
Maybe it’s all about supply…
My guess is the reason that humans that possess the size and speed necessary to play D Line or Tackle in the NFL are much rarer than humans that possess the size and speed necessary to play safety or running back.
Wide receivers also are in a small size + speed demographic.
Quarterbacks are in a narrow demographic too – size + arm + intelligence + moxy.