If you’re looking for a silver lining in this bad economy and especially in a dismal Christmas retail season, you can at least console yourself with the thought that there will be less deadweight loss this year than in past Christmases — that is, less inefficiency generated by people spending money to buy things for other people who value the gifts at significantly less than they cost. (We once wrote a column that touched on deadweight loss, and here’s a seminal paper on the topic, by Joel Waldfogel.)
On the other hand … how about all those New York Jets Brett Favre jerseys? After a long and fruitful career with the Green Bay Packers, Favre retired last year, then tried to unretire with Green Bay, which didn’t want him, which led him to sign with the Jets, whereupon his new jersey became this year’s best-seller at NFLShop.com. The day after he signed with the Jets, his jersey broke the single-day sales record: 6,500, versus the old record of 900 (for Tony Romo).
A lot of Jets fans envisioned Favre leading them to the promised land, and as of five weeks ago, things looked great. After beating the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans, the Jets even had a few pie-eyed optimists talking about an all-New York Super Bowl (Jets vs. Giants), just as a few pie-eyed optimists once talked of an all-New York presidential election this year.
But then Favre started to look … well, like the quarterback the Packers were so willing to get rid of. The Jets lost four of their last five games (they really should have lost the fifth as well), and Favre was a big part of it. Here’s how he performed during that time — against a slate of opponents, it should be noted, who aren’t exactly world-beaters: Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle, and Miami.
Attempts/completions: 175/98
Passing yards: 1,011
Touchdowns: 2
Interceptions: 9
Sacks: 9
Passer rating: 55.4
So how do all those people who paid $80 for Favre Jets jerseys feel today? Do they wish they’d spent their money elsewhere? How much would they pay for the same jersey today? Did they derive $80 worth of pleasure from it up to this point — i.e., was the thrill of the first two-thirds of the season worth the pain of the last third?
The sense of loss is even greater because the Jets were beaten on the last day of the season by the Miami Dolphins, who went from a 1-15 season last year to the playoffs this year while employing the very quarterback (Chad Pennington) whom the Jets ditched to make room for Favre.
What will this do for Favre jersey sales?
It is unlikely Favre will come back for another season with the Jets — so maybe sales will hold up since his jersey is essentially a collector’s item.
But it is also unlikely many Jets fans will have fond feelings for Favre any time soon. So it is hard to imagine too many of them buying a Favre jersey again, ever.
And what about wearing the jerseys they’ve already bought? Psychologists have noted a pair of phenomena related to this question: Basking in Reflected Glory (BIRGing) and Cutting Off Reflected Failure (CORFing). This boils down to the fact that people like to wear a team’s jersey after the team wins (that’s a BIRGer binge) and they like to bury a team’s jersey deep in the closet after the team loses.
The market for used and new Favre jerseys would make a good case study for a young economist or psychologist. My prediction is that Favre will be almost universally disliked for a few weeks or months, but then he’ll finally retire for good, at which point he begins to regain his status as the beloved, grizzled gunslinger. Then we don’t hear about him too much for five years, at which point he’s inducted into the Hall of Fame, at which time his jersey becomes a No. 1 seller all over again.
But in the Packers’ green and gold, I’m thinking, not the Jets’ green and white.
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Important note: Favre didn’t “sign” with the Jets. They traded a conditional draft pick (not sure which round it ended up being in) for him, then cut the better quarterback. All for a washed-up and overrated quarterback whose declining arm can no longer make up for his propensity to make absolutely inexcusable boneheaded decisions.
Good riddance, Brett Favre. Now maybe Peter King, Tony Kornheiser, and the rest of your sportswriter sycophants will finally stop shoving you down our throats.
This is why economists are right up there with used car salesmen….
When Brett signed with the Jets, he had not as of then done a single thing for the Jets. Yet his jersey sold like crazy.
So it wasn’t his production that brought that–it was the promise.
Further, however this season turns out, the Jets have been rejuvenated by Brett. There is something there that wasn’t before–and excitement and anticipation.
Brett will not only return for another season, but the Jets will love it. They will think, “Man, if Brett’s first year here got us this far, then for sure his second year will be even better.”
Lastly, it is not mainly the numbers that matter for Brett. It is his aura of ruggedness, strength, underdog-edness, old-guy-hangs-tough-with-the-young-guys, and the such. THAT is what sells Brett and his jerseys.
Stephen, you should know better than to pose sports-related questions to this pretentious crowd.
Between the Jets (Favre) and Miami (Pennington, former Jet), I feel like Miami definitely got their money’s worth. Favre is certainly one of the great quarterbacks, a legend in his own time, but that time is about over and he probably brought his legend down to the realm of mere mortals with a less-than-stellar return, much like Joe Gibbs did with his second run as the Redskins’ head coach. But maybe that will fade, I don’t know.
I expect the Favre Jets jersey is more of a novelty than anything near genuine fandom. I wouldn’t be surprised, therefore, if many Jets fans were ashamed of the jersey that they bought. I think everyone loves to BIRG, but it takes more than a novelty to make one want to suck up the CORF.
I’m just eagerly awaiting the “then we don’t hear about him too much for five years” phenomenon. It’s long overdue.
The key to the initial surge of Favre jersey sales was the enormous PR campaign waged by the sports media over the past decade to persuade the public that Favre is one of the true legends of the game. (It obviously worked on Mr. Dubner, given his “beloved, grizzled gunslinger” comment.)
We are talking about the career interception leader, are we not? A man who has thrown away countless big games, and whose career passer rating lags far behind Pennington’s?
The reality of the product didn’t live up to the hype, so the gift gets tossed to the back of the closet…along with the head coach.
You also can’t forget about the die-hard Brett Favre fans from his hometown Kiln, MS. I bet you can account for about 1000 of the jerseys right there. The local bar got rid of all the cheeseheads and now everyone refers to the new favorite team as the New York Bretts.
I’m not sure that it is fair to lump the Dolphins in with the “non-world-beaters”. They did win their division.
how much is joe montana’s chiefs jersey or jerry rice’s raiders’ one worth? that’s (and similar) probably the best indication.
My condolences, New York. We feel your pain.