Did you know that in 1965 the U.S. Department of Agriculture planted a particular variety of lilac in more than 70 locations around the U.S. Northeast, to detect the onset of spring — in turn to be used to determine the appropriate timing of corn planting and the like? The records the U.S.D.A. have kept show that those same lilacs are blooming as much as two weeks earlier than they did in 1965. April has, in a very real sense, become May.
That’s from a RealClimate blog post about a new book by Amy Seidl called Early Spring. The subtitle is An Ecologist and Her Children Wake to a Warming World — so no, it doesn’t appear that Seidl is blaming the lilacs for global warming.
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Melissa – those were my thoughts exactly. Do they have this data for the Midwest? Because I think lilacs come out here for like a day in late May.
— Woesinger
“On your point 2 – it is not true that most scientists thought we were headed for an Ice Age in the ’70s.”
Those are Dr. David Deutch’s words not mine. Actually I remember the Ice Age notion throughout the 1960′s. Although the influence of CO2 trapping science had been established as early as 1920, most people (in my understanding) thought that particulate matter was a bigger problem.
“On your point 4 – care to back that statement up with some corroborating evidence?”
Climatologists and Meteorologists–Perhaps you are right and I notice it more when one of these people disagrees with AGW people. Nevertheless, as I said, science is not a matter of consensus. Really it isn’t.
I could be wrong. Can you say that?
It comes down to whether you believe the people who have spent their lives studying a topic to be right or not. I’m not sure if they are but they certainly have a better shot than I do, or Eric M Jones.
It is a basic fact of America anti intellectualism, we spend billions of dollars educating people (supposedly) to be the best in the world. Then refuse to believe them when they say something we don’t like.
It’s not May in DC. Brrrr.
— Adam#11 “It comes down to whether you believe the people who have spent their lives studying a topic to be right or not. I’m not sure if they are but they certainly have a better shot than I do, or Eric M Jones….blah, blah, blah.”
Yeh, that’s what I say…Always Trust Authority. When have they ever failed us?
Has September become August?
Maybe we need a lunar calendar.
I’ve done some gardening in my day, particularly intense in the years from 1988 through 2007. And I saw that some bulbs would bloom for a while, then crap out. Especially if not tended to.
Is it possible that thes lilacs are going through some sort of natural phase? They’re maturing, they’re sucking on the same soil for nutrients, they’re going through their natural cycle– perhaps that would mean blooming early for a few years… then who know what. Maybe they’ll all croak soon… or start blooming later… or bloom earlier. Is there a control group of lilacs?
I never had much luck with lilacs.
Plus they make my eyes water.
Can’t beat the smell, though!
Reading any discussion of climate change involving the American public is acutely distressing for the rest of the world.
Its like looking back into the 1970s. Could you please wake up ? This is an actual ongoing real emergency. We need your help!
Climate change doesn’t mean everywhere will get warmer or that the change will be constant: if its colder in a few places or this year, that doesn’t mean its not happening.
There are many natural cycles and there have been past periods of warming: if you eliminate the likely effects of those cycles (that produced past highs) we’re still warmer than we should be. Also the rate of change is greater than the changes which led up to previous warm periods, meaning the environment is less likely to adapt.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is massively higher than at any period in millions of years.
All glaciers on every continent are retreating and ice shelves are breaking up (a few spots in Antartica are colder). North polar ice cap is thinner and less extensive year by year. Greenland ice cap is melting.
Acidification of the seas is measurably increasing and becoming more widespread (they aren’t really getting acid, just not ‘neutral’).
It is happening, it is man-made, it is going to impact everybody badly.
I find it hard to believe that the many friendly, intelligent and kind Americans I meet are really so selfishly inclined that they won’t change their lifestyles to fight this change. What will it take to convince you?