When the crime statistics for 2006 were released, the news media had no trouble declaring that the next big crime wave had hit (even though violent crime had just ticked up 2 percent, property crime fell by the same amount). So what’s happened since? Crime dropped across the country, especially in big cities. In the District of Columbia, once the nation’s murder capital, homicides are down 17 percent over last year. Big cities across the country are showing decreases in violent crime as well. [%comments]
Where Have All the Criminals Gone?
TAGS: crime, statistics
and 
. You can also watch it on 
I agree with #5
Did abortions increase 15 years ago?
Surely this is nothing more than “regression toward the mean,” where extreme values of a random variable tend to be followed (by nature) by less extreme values.
Sir Francis Galton explained it over a hundred years ago, but it still baffles reporters and politicians to this day.
Don’t fall into the same trap that most reporters do. Looking at this year’s numbers versus last year’s numbers. Look back at the past ten years of violent crime statistics and one will see a tremendous drop over that time period. A drop which makes one suspect that the 2% increase between 2005 and 2006 are within expected variation. But when we focus on comparing only two consecutive years we lose site of the total picture and the large reduction in violent crime.
Several possibilities:
Legal purchase of firearms, especially handguns leapt in anticipation of and following Obama’s victory.
The economy is doing poorly enough that more potential perps don’t think the potetnial payoffs are worth it.
Poor economy means less money for inhibition-reducing alcohol.
Police and courts have become much better at incarcerating those who are or might become violent.
The trend has generally been down, for whatever reasons and this is just a large and noteworthy jump, soon to be followed by next years’ “increase.”
Mis-reporting, so that when this year’s rate goes up, it can be blamed on Obama and the Democrats.
Drugs in the water supply.
I’ll stop now.
We can probably assume that the biggest reductions in crime came in the most common crime categories. The most common property crimes are probably shoplifting (petit larceny) and either home invasions or auto theft. The most common personal crimes are probably assault and rape.
Shoplifting might have gone down because there aren’t as many people going shopping anymore. If there are fewer customers in the store, when a potential thief enters a store, the store associates’ attention will be focused on her a lot more than before, making it more difficult to conceal merchandise.
Home invasions might have gone down because with so many people losing their jobs, it’s likely that any house that a burglar targets will have someone home, even during the day. Car thefts might have decreased because new cars aren’t being sold, so there are no attractive targets.
Assault and rape (not counting statutory rape, date rape, or rape by a close acquaintance) are typically chance encounters that turn to violence. If people aren’t staying out late as often, then there may be fewer chance encounters.
Of course none of this can be proven until we do a careful review of the FBI Uniform Crime Report.
It would be nice to think that people are helping their neighbors that are having hard times therefore offsetting the choice for criminal acts.
#5 has it head on. I quit accepting for fact anything I read, outside of sports scores. I might as well ask an actor/actress for their political opinion.
#7. LOL!!!!
#11 Plausible. Don’t we have to wait a few more years to see if the data pans out?
I’m stunned no one has suggested this yet.
In many poor, urban areas, it’s a widely held belief that whites hold all the power in our country and that your opportunities in life are limited by your skin color. Growing up believing that your society considers you a second-class citizen and that traditional avenues to success are closed off to you because of your race makes it a lot more likely that you’re going to engage in violent and criminal behaviors. And those beliefs were challenged in a very big way at the end of 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president.
I’m not sure this is the reason for the drop, but there’s an easy way to test it: Look at crime rates broken down by race. If it’s an Obama effect, you’d expect the crime rate to have fallen the most among Blacks, somewhat less among Latinos, and to see little to no decline in the rate of crimes committed by whites.
So, does anyone have access to those crime stats by race?