Researchers have long puzzled over the relatively poor health and education outcomes for babies born in the winter months. Past explanations have focused on school attendance laws, vitamin D exposure, and other environmental factors, but economists Kasey Buckles and Daniel Hungerman have found an overlooked explanation. They argue that less-educated women seem to have their children in winter, a fact that may explain some of the phenomenon. Our own Daniel Hamermesh says of the paper: “It means you have to think about things more than you want to think.” Buckles and Hungerman aren’t exactly sure why socioeconomic background drives the season of conception, but they offer the “prom” effect as one possible explanation: “January is, after all, about nine months after many of these soirées.” [%comments]
The Prom Effect?
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Hrm, I always thought that the November/December babies were a result of valentines day. I thought prom was generally in June, which puts the 9 months puts them in March . . .
maybe a “valentine’s day” effect ?
Is there a difference in winter-baby health an education between the USA and other countries that do not have school proms or comparable traditions?
Why is our interpretation of these data (teens are a higher proportion of mothers for children in January) that there is a teen-specific cause for their birth rates to rise in January (and by deduction, conception rates to rise in April)? Why do we “blame” the teens?
It seems that it could be that birth rates for non-teen parents are disproportionally lower for these months, and we should be looking for the cause among the non-teens instead.
I looked at the paper and it appears that the chart on p. 29 suggests that there are differences between the profiles, but that the married folks are disproportionately low in the winter months. Blame them!
The ideal time to have a child is between October and December. First this time is highly tax advantaged because a couple can claim a year’s worth of deductions for only 1 or 2 months of actually having the child to care for. Second, it hits the middle ground in terms of cuttoff dates so that a child is neither the youngest nor oldest member of their class, both situations which are known to cause problems.
better educated women do better at family planning and can plan to have their children in a convenient month of July.
When young women have little or no education or job opportunities, they start looking for meaning in life. Often for poor women, that means a family. Women start to consider these options around the end of the school year, or near prom. By the time prom actually rolls around, they’re probably already pregnant.
Unfortunately teenagers don’t understand the risks and high chance of abandonment of relying on another flaky teenager to be a father and breadwinner.
And once you have a child as a teenager, it becomes progressively harder for a single parent to go back to school, gain skills or make the sacrifices to get ahead in an industry. If you have to pick up junior by 5:15 p.m., you really can’t stay late to polish a report or work overtime.
As an anecdote, poorer women seem to believe that having a baby with a man will somehow cement that relationship. So they end up having more children with flaky men who leave anyway. It’s a vicious circle.
Prom isn’t the right time, but spring break is. Warmer temps, less clothing, alcohol, no school . . .