In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race. The shift is too recent to reflect pre-election polls, so it’s likely on-the-ground scuttlebutt, leaked exit polls, or, well, misdirection. (Don’t forget there was a similar move toward John Kerry at about the same time on election day 2004.)
As Drudge would say: Developing…
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I question whether there is reliable exit polling in this special election. Very hard to do since turnout, etc. is not as predictable as when everyone votes for everything in November, or even during primaries when a base of voters can be repeatedly polled and measured against raw exit data.
I do not think there is exit polling from what I have read. There was not enough time to put it in motion reliably by the time it became interesting enough to justify exit polling.
As reported elsewhere on nytimes.com, there are no exit polls in place for the Massachusetts special election. Thus, the “InTrade Prediction Market” necessarily does not indicate any “scuttlebutt” based on actual polling data.
Polling and ultimately final results lack relevance in this election inasmuch as its power to influence society. The fact that a republican has created so much stir in a state as blue as Massachusetts, particularly in this district, speaks for the direction this country is about move. If democratic congress people do not wake up and change their direction, this election is a statement of what will ultimately happen to their respective political careers.
There is no formal exit polling. If anyone syas they are doing it (like CNN claims), then it is ad hoc and not reliable. See this WSJ article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703837004575013111682315540.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLETopOpinion.
Stunning that a so called journalist doesn’t know this.
I meant to say no exit polling in this election.
As this i available for trading throughout the country and all of the news headlines are screaming about a big potential upset I wouldn’t take this as relevant. Could just be people in California (like myself) reading the news, hearing about the stock market surge and thinking this is what’s going to happen. We’ll find out in just a few hours!
There aren’t actually any exit polls for the Senate Race so, if anything, rumors are shifting the Intrade Predictions