Foreign Policy responds to the worried citizenry who cite recent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions as evidence of an impending apocalypse. Earthquakes actually haven’t become more frequent, although they have become more deadly, most likely due to urban expansion: “China’s Qinghai province has experienced 53 magnitude 5.0 or higher quakes since 2001, but it wasn’t until one struck near the population center in Yushu that the casualty numbers exploded.” According to the U.S. Geological Survey,?16 major earthquakes have occurred on average each year since 1900; so the six major earthquakes of 2010 are not unusual. Reported volcanic activity has increased, however the Global Volcanism Project hypothesizes that the observed increase in volcanic activity is actually due to “an increased reporting of eruptions.”[%comments]
The World Probably Isn't Ending
TAGS: environment
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I have a question not directly related to this column on volcanic activity, but under the category of natural disasters and our perceptions of them.
We always see headlines attributing death totals to blizzards and hurricanes. Recognizing that there are certainly deaths directly caused by these disasters, I’ve always wondered whether the impact of an accurately predicted and well publicized storm is not, in fact, to reduce overall death totals. My logic (or lack thereof…you tell me) is that a large percentage of people choose not to travel during the storm period. Given the frequency of travel deaths, primarily automobile accidents, isn’t it likely that the
highly publicized storm deaths are more than offset by the “normal” rate of automobile deaths that are avoided because of the lack of travel? Has anyone already done an analysis like this?
If you really want to stoke your paranoia subscribe to the USGS 5.0 and greater Twitter feed.
The New York Times ran an article about the American Petroleum Institute in April of 1998. It outlines a very specific and detailed plan by oil and gas industry representatives to invest millions of dollars in an effort to undermine support for the Kyoto Protocol and discredit the scientific consensus opinion that greenhouse gases are causing the planet to warm.
http://www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/ew@shell/API-prop.html
The draft plan, titled “Global Climate Science Communications Action Plan,” concedes that opposition to the protocol is not shared by the public or a vast majority of scientists worldwide. “There has been little, if any, public resistance or pressure applied to Congress to reject the treaty, except by those ‘inside the Beltway’ with vested interests,” it notes.
Read: Global Climate Science Communications Action Plan
http://harryhammer.wordpress.com/2010/03/15/global-climate-science-communications-action-plan/
One explanation of the Icelandic eruptions posits that the melting of glaciers in Iceland caused by global warming has led to a lowering of pressure on the magma chambers and an increase in volcanic activity.
Can we really suppose that the relatively quick removal of the equivalent of layers geological deposits will have no consequences?
For geological purposes melting ice is the same as eroding fock.
Isn’t the end of the world the type of thing econometric methods would have trouble predicting? There can’t be a whole lot of data on previous ends of this world or others.
I agree. I’ve been wondering for years now whether things are really so much more worse now in terms of crime and child/youth issues and environmental problems than before, or if it’s merely the fact that more people are simply much more aware more of the time which creates a perception of mayhem? Were the “golden years” or eras or whatever that much better? Or was it simply that “ignorance was bliss”?! But I do feel it’s better to be informed and aware and uninformed and naive. It also makes perfect sense that there are much more people creating more urbanization and increasing strain on resources. There are feedback mechanisms in nature that we have yet to understand that, when pricked, will fire back on us. Population control should be more of a priority than fretting about climate change.
“Earthquakes actually haven’t become more frequent…”
Only because the number of scantily clad women is remaining constant.
The World IS ending and — we are all going to die. Just not right now.