This Zach Weiner comic from Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal says pretty much everything that needs to be said about most economic prognostication.
Credit: Zach Weiner of Saturday Morning Breakfast CerealReliably Predicting the Future
Credit: Zach Weiner of Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
and 
. You can also watch it on 
Predicting the future might be a bit of a stretch, but personally, I”m becoming fascinated by what I understand is neuroscience’s ability to probe and understand investors’ perceptions of companies’. I’ve seen the phrase neuroeconomics, so I’m starting to look for investment possibilities in this sector. What I’ve come up with so far are some early indications that one of the neuromarketing companies may be going public. Now that’s a future I’m interested in…
Anyone could predict this economic crisis. Simply look at the trend lines! Or more simply yet, follow the economic press.
“Marketplace” on NPR and “The Economist” talked consistently about a housing bubble in the US from 2002-2007. I spent most of 2004-2006 convincing my friends and a girlfriend not to purchase homes. By 2006-2007 most of them didn’t need convincing anymore. Now I just bought a house in a great neighborhood in a major American city for 40% off.
Its too bad no one takes you seriously if you aren’t willing to spend your days jumping through institutional hoops. Sometimes I think major institutions should pay to have an institute set up where odd/semi-autistic people like me could sit around and follow their industries recreationally. That way they could hear about what is going on from someone who isn’t blinded by proximity/conflicts of interest. I am absolutely floored by some of the poor decision making that goes on at price levels where it never should.
Anyone could predict this economic crisis. Simply look at the trend lines! Or more simply yet, follow the economic press.
“Marketplace” on NPR and “The Economist” talked consistently about a housing bubble in the US from 2002-2007. I spent most of 2004-2006 convincing my friends and a girlfriend not to purchase homes. By 2006-2007 most of them didn’t need convincing anymore. Now I just bought a house in a great neighborhood in a major American city for 40% off.
Its too bad no one takes you seriously if you aren’t willing to spend your days jumping through institutional hoops. Sometimes I think major institutions should pay to have an institute set up where odd/semi-autistic people like me could sit around and follow their industries recreationally. That way they could hear about what is going on from someone who isn’t blinded by proximity/conflicts of interest. I am absolutely floored by some of the poor decision making that goes on at price levels where it never should.
I also liked the quote:
“If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion”
which I’ve seen attributed to Shaw.
Seems to me it goes with the above.
(and I always thought it should be followed with “But many of them would be smiling”)
Drill-Baby-Drill Drill Team,Great Job!
We have to make assumptions and decisions under uncertainty.
Wish I had 500,000k to invest now, so I can take out 3k /mo forever, assuming 8% rate of return annually PV=Annuity / interest rate
With todays’ interest rate or t-bill rate of essentially nil or say 1%, the number I need today becomes $3.5M.
So, reserve requirements, ballooned to fund any pensions, defined benefit plans,
I made my calculations on the state of the world with a steady 5%, 401K, return on cash (savings).
Social security, I expect 1K / mo someday,
So Uncle Sam needs to set aside 150K, assuming, the fed can get 8% on its $.
150K=12000/.08
@ 1%, their promise to me becomes $1,2M
I’m going to stock up on dry cat-food, though, I haven’t priced it recently in 50lb bags.