I expect to have a conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, in the next couple of days. He’s a very smart and talkative fellow, and I suspect he would fit into a Freakonomics Radio podcast very well. What would you like me to ask him?
What Do You Want to Hear from Nassim Nicholas Taleb?
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Does Nassim have any thoughts on sports strategy, say in football, where randomness seems highly relevant?
where does he invest his money?
Ask him what he thinks of the way most teachers arrive at grades by averaging test scores rather then allowing students to simply add up their accomplishments until they show understanding.
could he write a book not mostly about how sophisticated and erudite he feels that he is? maybe with a little humility his writing would be tolerable.
Sorry, I can’t let this go. In the late 70s and early 80s, starting (naturally) in California with Proposition 13, the notion that it is possible to accurately appraise every single property in any given place on one certain day in every single year using pseudo scientific multiple regression analysis and armies of “experts” swept across the nation. If tax rates were low the consequences would be relatively inconsequential. Naive reliance on the belief that these appraisals actually reflect “market value” has given elected officials convenient moral cover for raising taxes, made worse by the practice of using separate governmental bodies to do the actual appraising. I think that this is an example of where “scientism” and “optimization” have led to disastrous results.
If NNT was the final authority in writing the financial reform bill, what components would he include, and at what priority (must have/should have/nice to have)?
Alternatively (if he doesn’t think financial reform is worth it), can our current financial system be reformed at all?
I second support for question on what books he might recommend to general readers.
Ask him if black swans mean that people are so obsessed with one story that they forget that other stories can happen or if it is really impossible to see them coming.
Ex: the fall of Lehman was a black swan because “no one saw it coming” or was a normal market event as many players placed the bets against a troublesome company (which means the people who have played short on it… knew it would come). Same on the black Wednesday… is it a black swan or a return to normal?
What does the internet mean to black swans? are they easier to predict due to more information (less asymmetries and less imperfections) or are they harder to predict as the news about what happened circulates faster having effects in more parts of the world?
What is Mr.Taleb’s bet for the future? What would he invest in?