It’s not quite Minority Report, but the L.A. Times reports that the LAPD is working with UCLA mathematicians to pursue a sophisticated form of predictive policing. In the not-too-distant future, “automated, detailed crime forecasts tailored to each of the department’s 21 area stations would be streamed several times a day to commanders,” with consolidating information from detectives, witnesses, suspects, and victims fed into a centralized database. Researchers George Mohler and Martin Short‘s models suggest “thinking of crimes the way seismologists think of earthquakes and aftershocks.” [%comments]
When the Prediction Fits the Crime
TAGS: crime, statistics
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This sounds like a situation that would be ripe for an opposing statistical analysis. Using past statistical methods to predict future actions by people sounds risky, the problem is that the actions taken could impact the outcome and lead to results that seem supportive, but in-fact are just outcomes of the actions, not the statistics.
Does this not sound like the premise to the show “Numb3rs” on CBS to anyone else?
Looks like Chicago is trying the same thing: http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/2651492,CST-NWS-whizkid30.article
The majority of criminals and prisoners are repeat offenders.
This statement is just a description of the statistics you’re writing about, with the operative word being “repeat.”
The LA Lakers win the NBA Championship. Drunk riots break out. Someone dies. The Dodgers win. Riots and Death. IMF or World Bank Governors comes to LA, violent protests, riots, looting and someone dies. Rodney King Verdict is released, looting, rock throwing, fires, and death. You don’t have to be a MatheMagician to Predict these crimes. Just pay attention to sports box scores and the jury docket. Thank God LA doesn’t have a high caliber NFL Team and the Dodgers are middling.
There are critical violent groups like Anarchists, Street Gangs and Radical Islamists that should be penetrated and monitored. They are the mathematical odds for violence that even Las Vegas would game.
I would think that the cops already know the hot spots that they need to patrol. Would they trust a sheet of statistics over their gut instinct? I guess this would just be another tool at their disposal if their normal patrol is quiet.
Since we’re talking predictions, here’s mine: this exercise will give the title “Minority Report” an entirely different meaning, rendering any such project politically impractical.
I’d just run a credit check on everybody. Those with low credit ratings are doing all the crime.
On the contrary Eric M. Jones, it’s the people that have a great credit report that are doing the crimes, at least on Wall St. Of course some are bankers as well as insurance companies or brokerages. It all depends upon how you feel about soup! Some that like soup are wealthy and those that do not like soup poor. Personally, I can take it or leave it!