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New York Mets outfielder Angel Pagan practicing the fine art of defense. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
There’s always a first. In this case, from the studios of WNYC in New York, it’s the first episode of Freakonomics Radio on American Public Media’s Marketplace.
Yes, the Freakonomics podcast has been around for a few months, but now we’re on public-radio stations nationwide, exposing listeners to “the hidden side of everything.”
This first Marketplace segment acknowledges a simple fact — that scoring is way, way down in Major League Baseball (heck, the playoffs just opened with a no-hitter).? We’re asking a simple question: who stole all those runs?? (For a look at the data behind the answers, check out this groovy, graph-filled explainer).
The cast of characters includes authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal, the baseball statistician Mitchel Lichtman, San Diego Padres manager Bud Black, and former big-leaguer (and now author) Doug Glanville.
There wasn’t room for it in the piece, but in an interview Glanville told us about the time he was brought in as a ninth-inning defensive replacement to keep pitcher Eric Milton‘s no-hitter going.
So how’d things work out? Hint: Glanville now refers to the incident as “Milton’s paradise lost.”
[CORRECTION: This story incorrectly reports that pitchers aren't any better "than in years past."? This is only true when comparing 2010 pitching to 2009 , and using pitchers in the American League.]
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This claim by Dubner is incorrect: “Every year since 2006, the average number of runs scored by major league teams has dropped. But if you isolate the pitching stats, you see that pitchers themselves aren’t any better than in years past. Fielders are the ones picking up the slack. The numbers show that fielders have gotten better at converting hits into outs.”
2006:
HR/9 1.11
K/9 6.52
DER: .687 (rate at which balls in play become outs)
2010:
HR/9 0.95
K/9 7.06
DER: .689
At least 95% of the reduction in scoring can be explained by the lower HR rate and higher strikeout rate — two things fielders have no influence on.
Do you guys fact-check this stuff?
I would be curious to know what you all think of the analysis that Stephen Jay Gould did on the demise of the .400 hitter. Is his approach different from yours? Are the results consistent?
Great podcast, random question, what’s the name of the song at the end of the cast?