Diehard baseball fans know that the season doesn’t really end with the World Series. It just downshifts a bit, as J.C. Bradbury explains in his new book Hot Stove Economics: “The final out of the World Series marks the beginning of baseball’s second season, when teams court free agents and orchestrate trades with the hope of building a championship contender. The real and anticipated transactions generate excitement among fans who discuss the merit of moves in the arena informally known as the ‘hot stove league.’”
Chapters in the new book:
1. Why Johnny Estrada Is Worth Kevin Millwood: Valuing Players as Assets
2. Down with the Triple Crown: Evaluating On-Field Performance
3. A Career Guide from Little League to Retirement: Age and Success in Baseball
4. Putting a Dollar Sign on the Muscle: Valuing Players
5. Duds, Deals, and Caveats: What Do the Estimates Reveal?
6. Winning on a Dime: The Best and Worst Managed Franchises of the Decade
7. Is C.C. Sabathia Worth $161 Million? Valuing Long Run Contracts
8. You Don’t Need a Name to Be Traded: Valuing Minor-League Prospects
Bradbury is an associate professor at Kennesaw State University. You may have heard him comparing baseball managers to U.S. presidents in our “How Much Does the President Really Matter” podcast. He also contributed to our “What’s Derek Jeter Worth?” quorum.
And now, just in time for the Baseball Winter Meetings, Bradbury is here to field your burning off-season baseball questions. Ask away in the comments section below and, as always, we’ll post his answers shortly.
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The Nationals signed Jason Werth for what most baseball analysts believe is an overly generous amount (7 yrs, $126MM). I read that you valued Werth at this amount (approximately). Does your estimate take into account that the Nationals will likely be a cellar dweller these next few years and that any incremental gain from Werth isn’t worth what they’re paying (as incremental gains are worth more to a playoff team than a cellar dwellar)?
What’s the approximate dollar value of the first pick in the first round? My understanding is that baseball teams can’t trade draft picks in the amateur draft, but I was wondering what the first pick should/would fetch in an auction.
The Nationals signed Jason Werth to a contract that I feel is pretty overpriced. Using comps from last year and bumping up a few % b/c of inflation, I thought his going rate would have been closer to $13 million per year for a shorter contract. What do you think the Nats know that we don’t? Or do you know? Or is this a good example of a winner’s curse?
The highest paid managers get paid multiples less than the highest paid players. JC, do you come up with estimates on value of managers? More specifically, if you were the agent for the best manager in MLB (whomever you think that is), could you argue that manager pay should be doubled?
The Royals have been horrible for years. Even though they imported Dayton Moore from the Braves, who was a highly respected exec, they have continued to be bad on the field and still the outlook looks pretty dismal.
So here’s my question: why do the Royals stink every year?
I’d like to hear your opinion on whether or not it’s a problem specific to KC (same owner) or some league-wide issue w/ teams w/ smaller payrolls.
Is Derek Jeter worth anywhere near what the Yankees ended up giving him?
It appears that on-base percentage is understood by many/most organizations and being valued better than in the 1990s. It appears that over the past few years that teams are trying to quanitfy defense and taking that into account when signing players. Is there an obvious next thing that isn’t being properly valued well that could/should be?
I haven’t read your book yet (but will, as Santa bought it for me). When you value players, do you take into account league i.e. a player is worth something differently in the AL v. the NL? If so, how?