Nifty article in today’s Journal about a nifty study by Bret Myers of Villanova:
The pace and flow of soccer generally make it difficult for managers to affect the outcome of a match once it begins. Since soccer has almost no stoppages for coaches to draw on clipboards or strategize with their players, a manager’s most critical in-game decision may be choosing when to utilize their three substitutions. …
Myers analyzed the substitutions and ensuing results of every game played during the 2009-10 season in the top English, Spanish, Italian and German professional leagues, as well as the 2010 Major League Soccer season and the 2010 World Cup. He concluded that if their team is behind, managers should make the first substitution prior to the 58th minute, the second substitution prior to the 73rd minute and the third prior to the 79th minute. Teams that follow these guidelines improve-score at least one goal-roughly 36% of the time. Teams that don’t follow the rule improve about 18.5% of the time.
I don’t know if there’s much of an empirical literature about substitution for other team sports (this baseball study, e.g., is more about optimizing matchups). It does strike me that as much as “conditioning” is appreciated in sports, the role of fatigue — mental and physical — is perhaps underappreciated. Yet another reason to think about using an “opener” in baseball?
At the top of this column is a (poor) photo I snapped in Barcelona in December, of Lionel Messi getting subbed in the 54th minute in a Copa del Rey match against Bilbao. (Below is a photo of Messi in action in that same match.) The other subs: David Villa at 63 minutes and Adriano at 79 minutes — just right, according to Myers’s research. But it didn’t work out for Barca. Neither Messi nor the others provided much of a spark as a sub, and the match was a 0-0 draw. He was nevertheless wonderful to watch.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
If Barça wasn’t behind, how is this related to the study at all?
(Side note: Barça are pretty much never behind!)
Can wel say selection bias? A stronger bench means earlier, and better substitutions. So the study really says that better teams are more likely to win. Yawn.
Due to its pace and flow soccer is really difficult to quantify. However, I have a possible (of course partial) explanation for the observations of Myers. The earlier a substitution occured, the more obvious it has been to the manager that it would probably be useful. The opportunity cost of a substitution at 50′ is much higher than at 80′, so the expected advantages of an early substitution should have been higher. I cannot explain why this has no effect on non-losing teams – so maybe I’m wrong.
A perfect example why soccer will never catch on in America. Soccer is not played by the book. There are no managers on the sidelines going through stats and books to decide their next move. Managers coach by gut feeling and their heart. They know their players and know what they want from them when they insert them into the game. No manager will ever read this study and use them in his coaching. Nor should they.
May Americans be kept far, far away from this beautiful game before they ruin it, like they have done with every major American sports, which are nothing more than TV commercials interrupted by some sporting event. The beauty of soccer is once the players are on the field they pretty much are on their own for each 45 min half. That is the way it should be. Imagine an NFL game with no coaches, no headsets to send signals and no interruptions in the game. That is were the boys would get separated from the men and the true geniuses from the poseurs.
Interesting but bookings (similar to foul problems in basketball), fitness levels and competitions (knock-out, group or league formats) probably play a bigger role.
I’d love to see some thorough stat breakdowns on football (soccer) strategies. Stats are historically a no-go area at least in the UK/ROI region. Managing is considered more an art form than equations
Oh yeah, Rick. Watching two middle of the table EPL teams keep each other from scoring for 90 minutes is more beautiful than a field of wheat waving in a breeze or a clipper ship with a bone in her teeth bound for the spice islands. On the other hand, Barcelona.
Apart from when to substitute, it also matters whom do you substitute. E.g. do you substitute a striker with a mid-fielder or vice-versa. Does the study indicate such a possibility. Of course, if you are behind, you want to score as many goals as possible. But then, how do you go about substituting? Introduce a striker first, followed by a mid-fielder and followed by a striker again? Or what else is the way you substitute?
O.K. Now do another study of the previous season and see if it confirms your results. Then, if it does, make predictions about the next season. If they turn out to be accurate, you may be on to something.