Nifty article in today’s Journal about a nifty study by Bret Myers of Villanova:
The pace and flow of soccer generally make it difficult for managers to affect the outcome of a match once it begins. Since soccer has almost no stoppages for coaches to draw on clipboards or strategize with their players, a manager’s most critical in-game decision may be choosing when to utilize their three substitutions. …
Myers analyzed the substitutions and ensuing results of every game played during the 2009-10 season in the top English, Spanish, Italian and German professional leagues, as well as the 2010 Major League Soccer season and the 2010 World Cup. He concluded that if their team is behind, managers should make the first substitution prior to the 58th minute, the second substitution prior to the 73rd minute and the third prior to the 79th minute. Teams that follow these guidelines improve-score at least one goal-roughly 36% of the time. Teams that don’t follow the rule improve about 18.5% of the time.
I don’t know if there’s much of an empirical literature about substitution for other team sports (this baseball study, e.g., is more about optimizing matchups). It does strike me that as much as “conditioning” is appreciated in sports, the role of fatigue — mental and physical — is perhaps underappreciated. Yet another reason to think about using an “opener” in baseball?
At the top of this column is a (poor) photo I snapped in Barcelona in December, of Lionel Messi getting subbed in the 54th minute in a Copa del Rey match against Bilbao. (Below is a photo of Messi in action in that same match.) The other subs: David Villa at 63 minutes and Adriano at 79 minutes — just right, according to Myers’s research. But it didn’t work out for Barca. Neither Messi nor the others provided much of a spark as a sub, and the match was a 0-0 draw. He was nevertheless wonderful to watch.
and 
. You can also watch it on 
If your team is drawing or losing by 1 goal, then it’s usually put on a striker or attacking midfielder for a more defensive midfielder. If it’s 2 or more goals, then it’s a striker or attacking midfielder for a defender.
There wasn’t anything said about making multiple substitutions. Why send on one sub when you can send on 2 together? Two strikers for a midfielder and another striker? A striker and a midfielder for a midfielder and defender. There are lots of possibilities.
It is bizarre that Association Football continues to underutilize its coaching staff to the extent it does. The main problem is that its chief controlling bodies are not the for-profit leagues, but non-profit, amateur originated governing bodies that put more emphasis on tradition than on making the sport a more exciting product.
The lacks of clock stoppages do more than make it difficult for fans to refresh their drinks or the league to generate revenue through TV adverts. The final 20 or so minutes of the games are little more than a farce as exhausted players struggle to move about the field.
The Gridiron Football, Hockey and Basketball have all realized that players need rest to be able to put on the best show of performance for the fans. Moreover players will play harder if they know an injury won’t put their team at a permanent man disadvantage.
More opportunities for coaching strategy opens up a whole new dynamic to the game that helps further involve fans and provides for something that can be studied academically. Association Football would be much improved with the addition of more substitutions, time outs and a video challenge system.
I pray that one day FIFA’s monopoly on Football will be broken by a USFL style competitor that tweaks the rules to produce genuinely more exciting games. Much like Baseball evolved in the 1920′s with rules to make hitting easier and basketball evolved with the shot clock and 3 point line, Association Football stands poised for a revolution that will make everything before as the “boring ball era”.
There is a huge literature on pitching subsitutions in baseball. The idea is that you want to use your best pitchers in the most critical situations, a concept that is called “leverage”.
An early study of mine (.pdf) is on page 7 here:
http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2003-02.pdf
But much of the work is the product of Tom Tango – he has a whole section on the subject on his website here:
http://www.tangotiger.net
You can also search for “leverage” on the various sabermetric blogs, such as “Inside The Book” and “The Hardball Times”.
Finally, you can google “reliever leverage” for lots more.
Wonderful to watch? It was 0-0!
Now if someone would just call me an ignorant American.
If 2 of your subs are Messi and Villa, I’d suggest the earlier you get them in the better!
Also, like #1 said, if the study was based on a team coming from behind, then your Barca game fell outside of the applicable test.
This is an interesting study, but it’s purely a “best case average scenario”.
However, if it began to delve a little deeper, it could reveal some much more appealing insights.
For instance, what is the success rate per manager,
Within games where a sub (or series of subs) is required?
And is there a clear difference between manager success?
An answer or indication to this would reveal which managers are more tactically astute and can enable change, in a very difficult environment and situation.
Could it be that a slightly different set of insights appear? Such as those managers that change strikers early on; or to a more attacking formation reap better results than those managers less eager to change?
Two managers for this comparison immediately spring to mind…. Alex Ferguson (Man Utd) and Rafa Benitez (ex Liverpool, Inter Milan)
I would be shocked if Benitez came out on top!
Most subs in soccer are made around the 60th minute, 75th minute and 80th minute.
So is the researcher saying that the managers who don’t adhere to these norms are usually bad managers?
And “prior to” is awfully useless wording from anyone pretending to be scientific. If I make 3 subs at the start of the second half, a move that’s normally a bad strategy, it would fulfill the requirement of “prior to.”
@Mike B
“The final 20 or so minutes of the games are little more than a farce as exhausted players struggle to move about the field. ”
Umm… no. Often as legs get tired opportunities open up. Have you never watched a match where a goal was under siege for the final minutes? Fatigue is part of the romance of the game, and to watch a tired team battle has its own charm.
“Moreover players will play harder if they know an injury won’t put their team at a permanent man disadvantage. ”
Umm… no. That is completely eclipsed by the knowledge that an injury will *injure them* and put them out for days, weeks, months or perhaps their entire career. Players avoid breaking their legs because they don’t want broken legs.