It was like the 1990s all over again when the FBI released the latest crime statistics last week. Violent crime fell by five percent; property crime fell by three percent. Those are the sorts of crime declines that were commonplace in the 1990s.
But what was really reminiscent of the 1990s was the way the media covered it. The New York Times is a perfect example. For starters, the set of criminologists who give quotes in the story are the exact same criminologists who were called upon by the Times each year in the 1990s to assess the latest numbers: James Alan Fox, Alfred Blumstein, and Franklin Zimring. (You may remember James Alan Fox as the portent of doom in the abortion and crime chapter of Freakonomics.)
And these experts are just as puzzled by the recent crime drop as they were 20 years ago. “Remarkable,” says James Alan Fox. “Striking,” says Blumstein.
(Stockbyte)
Apparently, everyone expected crime to rise because of the weak economy, which I find strange, because there is zero evidence of any relationship between violent crime and the economy, and a relatively weak one between property crime and the economy. Plus, relative to 2009, the economy in 2010 was substantially improved.
Not that I claim to understand why crime fell last year, either. Any ameliorative effects of legalized abortion have run their course by now, so that is not the story. The number of people behind bars, for the first time in decades, is actually declining slightly. I suspect, given the ill health of state and local governments, that the number of police officers is not increasing either. So, out of all the forces that have heavily influenced crime in the last few decades, the only one unaccounted for is changes in drug markets. I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know whether this might be part of the story or not. Most likely, last year’s decline in crime was just noise, likely to be followed by an uptick in crime this year.
and 
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Video games and other forms of cheap, sedentary entertainment.
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Great Call.
I have always suspected there is a correlation between crime reduction and poor economic.conditions for the basic fact of high unemployment tends to leave people at home. They are spending less so therefore are not out and about at night to be victims of crimes like assault and robbery again just a thought about correlation.
I don’t know either, but I know some are claiming that it’s related to the growing number of concealed carry laws.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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Is it possible it could be the crime is being under reported? I remember hearing a This American Life story about a police offer who was targeted and later falsely arrested in NYC for reporting crimes in a way that would make their effectiveness look bad. Though I will admit one story does not a case make but might be something at least worth a look into?
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Isn’t demographics the simplest explanation? The cohort of 18-25 year-olds, who are responsible for the most crimes, has been declining for the last few years.
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I would guess the explosion in the use of mobile phones would be a factor. It’s much harder to find an isolated victim.
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Could the abortion effect be exponential, or has that already been accounted for? It’s been ~40 years, since abortion has been legalized, time enough for two generations. Could there be an “echo” of babies that weren’t born because their potential parents were never born, or does the math already account for that?
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Two contradictory explanations.
1. The huge increase in cell phones with cameras and other such devises. It is hard to do eomthing criminal without being seen. Crminals realize this, even thought the “experts” do not. A deterent.
2. The definition of what is a crime. Look at the news for this past weekend. There were near-riots or gang fights in many cities. The number arrested will be nowhere close to the number of actual “crimes” committed. No deterent-but statistically look s good.