In this segment of “Football Freakonomics,” Dubner looks at how players perform after returning from controversial suspensions and jail-time.
Last time on “Football Freakonomics,” how impressive stats sometimes indicate bad results.
“Football Freakonomics”: Controversy
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Interesting, but let’s remember that the NFL has been adjusting the rules over the past few years to benefit scoring. Which may explain, at least in part, why every offensive player mentioned demonstrated statistical improvements and the one player whose performance went downhill plays on defense.
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The video didn’t really tell us anything we didn’t already know! Any casual NFL fan knows that Vick and Big Ben are doing better now than they were before. And that Pacman Jones is doing worse. Duh!
What I really wanted to know from the video is, how does this play out in a large data sample? With how much precision can we predict Plaxico’s future performance?
Instead it was just a bunch of rah-rah pump up music overlaying a bunch of fuzzy sports “guru” talk. I expected more from a Fr”Economics” blog.
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I agree that I was expecting more data from the Dubner, et al. But wouldn’t it be even great if we couldn’t *find* a larger data set because the “jail-time comeback” becomes increasingly rare?
The video used Big Ben’s 4 game suspension for sexual abuse charges, it doesn’t have to be actual jail time. There have been quite a few incidents in recent memory of player misconduct: some guy on the Browns killed a pedestrian while driving drunk (Donte Stallworth), Tank Johnson for weapons charges, and weren’t there a bunch of drug cases involving a couple Cowboys in the late 90s?
Even a small sample of say 15-20 would be cool. Some players respond positively, others negatively. Why? Upbringing? The team they were brought into? (might have played a role in Vick….he got reallly lucky that Kolb got injured) etc…
This is totally misleading. You’re comparing the stats from the entire career before and after the jail (suspension), thus you’re including the rookie season and comparing it a veteran season. Common Dubner, you know you can’t do that! Big Ben’s YPG average has actually dropped from the season before the suspension (288.5) to after seasons YPG average (266.7)! Also his pass rating has dropped comparing the 2009 and 2010 season, by 3.5 points.