…up to. (And if you want more, he writes the always-interesting Oddhead Blog). A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age By David Pennock Prediction markets are a boon…
Who doesn’t love a good prediction market? The Economist does and so does Wired — and we certainly do too, as evidenced here and here. Here is a new blog…
One of the great unresolved questions of predictive analytics is trying to figure out when prediction markets will produce better predictions than good old-fashion mining of historic data. I think…
…with Cowgill, the Google whiz who set up an amazing set of prediction markets within Google. We use these prediction markets to track very precisely how information flows within the…
…customers. But all that may be about to change. The North American Derivatives Exchange has proposed to run political prediction markets in the U.S. which would be regulated by the…
…to make it easier for researchers to create them. While the statement argues the merits of prediction markets extremely cogently, and while I’m completely in favor of prediction markets and…
I’m saddened to learn that John Delaney died attempting to reach the summit of Everest. Readers of this blog will know John as the leader of my favorite prediction market,…
InTrade, the Dublin-based prediction market (i.e., betting platform) that we’ve written about regularly over the years (including a Q&A with its founder, John Delaney, who has since died), is under…
In my last post, I promised to say a bit more about prediction markets at Google. Google has been running internal prediction markets for a couple of years, and Eric…
In a short piece in the latest Science journal, about the Promise of Prediction Markets, we provide a short review of the literature on prediction markets — how and why…
…gamer who found it hard to sift through the available information to find worthwhile games. So he created an online prediction market for new video games, called simExchange. “The simExchange…
For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and…
One of the real barriers to widespread adoption of prediction markets by U.S. corporations has been a murky legal environment. Are prediction markets legitimate business tools, an alternative set of…
Photo: markn3tel OK, so Newt Gingrich’s senior staff have quit. But Newt’s not the news. At least according to the political prediction markets. The real news is that Texas Governor…
My friends over at Tradesports are catching some heat. Tradesports is an online prediction market that allows you to make bets on all sorts of unusual outcomes. A controversy is…
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
I’d go long on the following: Mark Oppenheimer, who writes the “Beliefs” column about religion for The New York Times, and who is a frequent writer for Slate and The…
Prediction markets. Are there any other two words that couple as nicely as those, at least to readers of this blog? The promise of a prediction market is simple and…
Also: How do you recover from a bad day?…
Over at Intrade, there are two “hot” markets involving the odds that Congress will raise the U.S. debt ceiling. – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before midnight…
…faces all around for the political prognosticators: Judging by the pre-vote polls and prediction markets, the Democratic primary in New Hampshire created one of the most surprising upsets in U.S….
…like to see legalized prediction markets, so that more information on price trends is available to more people early on, thus reducing the scale and cost of the speculative bubbles….
Pennsylvania State University has set up a prediction market for the weather, letting two groups of students bet against professional forecasting services like AccuWeather in trying to predict the temperature…
…fee because they think the probability that he will flee is lower. Indeed, in a truly competitive market, the bail bond percentage fee is one of the oldest prediction markets….
…markets and is currently running two parallel government shutdown prediction markets, allowing for an interesting experiment: At American Civics Exchange, we’ve just begun to implement cash prizes in our political…
We’ve blogged fairly regularly about prediction markets, so the next step would seem pretty logical: make our own. Enter the folks at Predictify (see the latest news here), who have…
…4:19 in the morning. It was gody22 (who is unknown to me) who pushed Peter up so high. The auction itself is a kind of prediction market.? Very crudely, if…
…political, economic and military trends around the globe. The goal of this unclassified project is to explore the effectiveness of techniques such as prediction markets, probability elicitation, training, incentives and…
In which we argue that failure should not only be tolerated but celebrated.
