The Folly of Prediction: Full Transcript

...prediction market is basically like a betting market or a speculative market, like orange juice futures or stock markets, things like that. The mechanics is that there’s a — an...

A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age: A Guest Post From David Pennock

...the interface with economics.  His latest project, called Predictalot, is an amazing new prediction market which allows people to trade on the millions of possible outcomes of the Sweet Sixteen.  It’s...

A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney

...Prediction markets. Are there any other two words that couple as nicely as those, at least to readers of this blog? The promise of a prediction market is simple...

The Folly of Prediction

...such markets address the pesky incentive problems of the old-time prediction industry:   HANSON: So a prediction market gives people an incentive, a clear personal incentive, to be right and...

New Freakonomics Radio Podcast: The Folly of Prediction

...So a prediction market gives people an incentive, a clear personal incentive, to be right and not wrong. Equally important, it gives people an incentive to shut up when they...

Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

...even larger lead for Sen. Obama. BetFair.com, the British prediction market, shows the Democrat to be a 74 percent favorite to win. The Iowa Electronic Markets suggest a 70 percent...

An Interesting New Prediction Market

...poker player? Rafe Furst is a pretty good poker player. He is also in the midst of inventing a new prediction market. It is called Truth Markets and I think...

Prediction Markets in New Orleans: A Guest Post

...panel to date: 1. Forrest Nelson, George Neumann, and Phil Polgreen will be presenting results from the Iowa Influenza Prediction Market. This is one of the most important public policy...

Prediction Markets vs. Super Crunching: Which Can Better Predict How Justice Kennedy Will Vote?

...One of the great unresolved questions of predictive analytics is trying to figure out when prediction markets will produce better predictions than good old-fashion mining of historic data. I...

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

...prediction market prices.  The evidence suggests that effects on prices are relative short-lived, and effects on perceptions are often counter-productive for the manipulator (e.g., through media stories mentioning the manipulation). ...