A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney

...turns out to be fairly accurate. (James Surowiecki, Mr. Wisdom-of-the-Crowds himself, has a nice summary of the field in this week’s New Yorker.) For many people, Intrade is the king...

Day After the Debate: Intrade Odds of Republican Candidates Securing Presidential Nomination

...relying on Beltway journalists to decide who won and who lost, I figured: why not see what the market is saying? So I headed over to Intrade to take a...

InTrade, Prediction Market to the Stars, Gets Banned From the U.S.

...InTrade, the Dublin-based prediction market (i.e., betting platform) that we’ve written about regularly over the years (including a Q&A with its founder, John Delaney, who has since died), is...

Is Too Much Attention Paid to Small InTrade Contracts?

...Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently posted this chart depicting an InTrade contract on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2008, with the following commentary: In online betting, the...

John Edwards May Not Want to Check InTrade Today; Fred Thomspon Might

...On the InTrade prediction market site, John Edwards has fallen behind the undeclared Al Gore. Here is Edwards’s recent price chart: And here is Gore’s: Note how far Gore...

FiveThirtyEighter Nate Silver Answers Your Questions About Politics, Baseball, and The Signal and the Noise

...markets as not totally efficient. Otherwise, there would be no incentive to make trades.  Q. It appears to me that prediction markets such as Intrade are continuing to grow, so I’m...

The Osama Spike on Obama's Re-Election Chances, Per InTrade

Here it is: upside of inertia These things don’t last long, do they? Meanwhile, Rick Perry has a better chance of winning the GOP’s nomination (29%) than Rupert...

What can the World Cup teach us about markets?

...I have long been a fan of the folks at www.tradesports.com and www.intrade.com. They brought a whole new approach to sports gambling. Instead of acting as a bookie and...

Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

...Sen. McCain on Intrade … executed at times when liquidity is particularly scarce. These orders have caused markets to shift sharply, often against the broader political narrative. The odd pattern...

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

...Markets (IEM), and by offshore exchanges such as Intrade.  Prices from these markets have made possible a broad range of academic research. Political event futures facilitate price discovery in other...