When I protest and tell people who approach me about it that I have absolutely no talent or secret, they never believe me. (Perhaps rightly so — if I really did have a secret, pretending I didn’t would be the right response.)
And I didn’t help my cause in the Kentucky Derby, when as a total fluke I happened to have the winner Giacomo at 50-1 as one of four horses I bet to win. Of course, I also bet to win on the horse that eventually finished last, so this should bolster my case that it was pure luck.
So I figured the only credible way to prove to people I have no skill at picking horses is to post my bets for tomorrow’s Preakness ahead of time.
I will be placing equal bets on Greeley’s Galaxy (morning line odds are 15-1), Afleet Alex (5-2), and High Limit (12-1) to win, and an exact box on those three.
The fact that I’m willing to post my picks should send you a very strong signal that they have no value. So be smart and don’t bet them!
17 Comments
I bet one of those horses will win. How’s that?
— PaulDon’t worry, your ROI on the horses is safe with me!
— Princess LeiaThis post has been removed by a blog administrator.
— TaylorI think Afleet Alex has the best average performance but the lowest variance in the field. Therefore, if every horse runs according to their mean ability, Afleet Alex would win. Chances are, however, that one or two of the high variance horses will surpass Afleet Alex’s predictable performance. The trick is finding a longshot with high variance to put on top of Afleet Alex in an exacta. I like Noble Causeway and High Limit, who have run great races in the past but are now undervalued based on their Derby performance. Other high variance horses such as Closing Argument, Giacomo, and High Fly won’t pay enough.
So to summarize, my bets are Noble Causeway to win, High Limit to win. One way exacta Noble Causeway over Afleet Alex. One way exacta High Limit over Afleet Alex.
— jonnybigtimeI think Professor Levitt gave us insufficient background on this one. What was the origin for the baseless reputation about picking winning racehorses?
— AnonymousI’ve always wondered what would motivate someone to place a bet in advance of the race in a parimutuel format. Placing a bet without knowing the odds doesn’t exactly seem like the most rational behavior … Separately, Chicago economist Richard Thaler cites some interesting studies on horse racing in chapter 10 of “The Winner’s Curse”: (1) favorite-longshot bias (e.g. longshorts received too much betting interest while favorites receive too little); (2) inconsistencies in place and show markets; (3) change in odds at end of betting period flags presciently which horses to bet upon. Of course these results might be reflective of general horse races while Triple Crown races are repositories of distinct betting patterns.
— JohnDYou of all people should know that you have to look back to the birth year to understand why this is such a mediocre group of three year olds. From the NY Times Sat. today.
“As she watched on television as the colt, Giacomo, thundered down the stretch to win the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby, Chandler, who is 79, burst into tears.
Long before the colt had outrun his 50-1 odds and his higher-profile opponents on May 7, Giacomo had to survive a devastating outbreak of mare reproductive loss syndrome in central Kentucky that caused the deaths of more than 2,500 fetuses and foals in 2001. On Chandler’s Mill Ridge Farm, where Giacomo was then in the womb of his mother, Set Them Free, 25 percent of the foal crop was either aborted or stillborn.”
— johnAh, betting on horses from the “I-know-nothing-school”, shamelessly hawking t-shirts, and encouraging membership in an “e-club” — this tells us all we need to know about these economics “scholars” — truly an oxymoron if there ever was one!
— AnonymousLast I heard, giving away t-shirts did not qualify as “shamelessly hawking” them. And what’s wrong with horse racing?
— Steven D. LevittI believe the gentle and esteemed Professor Levitt wrote his undergraduate thesis on horse racing, earning highest honors (”summa cum laude”), from Harvard College.
Also, wouldn’t the comma go before the close quote above (as in “I-know-nothing-school,”…)?
BTW, is that where you got your degree, Anon? ;-)
I haven’t gotten my shirt yet. Where is it, Steve? Is the guy above really a plant to add some drama to the blog? If so, funny!
— AnonymousSo, now we know, favored Afleet Alex not only won but pulled off a stunning acrobatic feat in the homestretch to remain in contention when hit by another horse.
My sons had amazing talent for picking winners as kids playing on the infield of De Mar Race Track. They went on names and colors.
What’s your process?
— AnonymousWill be interesting to see if betting activity in exactas and superfects rose for the preakness in light of the high payouts for the kentucky derby … would aptly illustrate of the notion of “everchanging cycles” that chicago phd/hedge fund manager victor niederhoffer recycled from horse racing to apply to markets– http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cycles.html
— johndI wish I would have placed a bet on Giacomo. I saw the name and that being my name in Italian inspired me to root for that horse. If only I put my money where my rooting was.
— jim fraunPlease let me know if you win. Maybe, I’ll try your luck.
— EmailHosting.comAfleet Alex won the preakness after falling to his (?) knees. Nice call on the exacta. You should consider turning this blog into a sports betting advice column. Talk about incentive.
http://www.rocksandboulders.com
— Ari G.So, um, who do you like for the Belmont…?
— kate qFor the record it was:
1. Afleet Alex
2. Scrappy T
3. Giacomo (Derby winner)
So got the winner but no go on the exacta.
— Anonymous