Opinion



By Stephen J. Dubner March 5, 2007, 6:43 am

Looking to Play a Cheap Democratic Long Shot?

In his New York Times column the other day (gated), David Brooks wonders aloud, and compellingly, if perhaps New Mexico governor Bill Richardson might somehow rise above the glamorously noisy H. Clinton/B. Obama fray and become the Democratic candidate for President. Here’s what Brooks likes about Richardson:

He’s down to earth, accessible, funny, and smart.

He is “the most experienced person running for president. He served in Congress for 14 years. He was the energy secretary (energy’s kind of vital).”

He is a “successful two-term governor who was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote in New Mexico, a red state. Moreover, he’s a governor with foreign policy experience. He was U.N. ambassador. He worked in the State Department. He’s made a second career of negotiating on special assignments with dictators like Saddam, Castro and Kim Jong Il. He negotiated a truce in Sudan.”

He is the only Democratic candidate who is “completely invulnerable on the tax cut issue.”

And most of all, Brooks writes, “he’s not a senator. Since 1961, 40 senators have run for president and their record is 0-40. A senator may win this year, but you’d be foolish to assume it.”

So far, Brooks’s enthusiasm hasn’t caught on, at least among the betting public as represented at InTrade, which accepts wagers on political campaigns and other sports. Richardson is still extremely cheap:

chart11727574814294254


5 Comments

  1. 1. March 5, 2007 10:06 am Link

    Is he still cheap now, after this posting?

    — 110phil
  2. 2. March 5, 2007 11:41 am Link

    Well, there’s your problem. He’s over qualified. With Bush having confirmed the Peter Principle, are you saying that competence is now back in vogue?

    I don’t think so. Look at all the recent last presidents since Gerald Ford. Every one was a crap shoot. Not really trained for the job.

    They were a peanut farmer, a simple-minded 2nd rate actor, small state governor from hicksville, and this last bozo who failed at everything he ever tried other than raising money on the back of his parents name.

    Ok, there was the first Bush who could be said actually trained most of his life for the job. Otherwise, competence is not high on Americans list of presidential qualifications.

    — egretman
  3. 3. March 5, 2007 11:45 am Link

    I wouldn’t say that New Mexico is a red state. It’s a wobbler, and Democrats have had lots of success there in the past several cycles.

    With that said, Richardson is the hands-down best-qualified Democrat in the race and ought to be doing better than he is. We will see what the real political marketplace thinks of him at the end of March, when the FEC publishes quarterly fundraising results for the various exploratory committees.

    — Transplanted Lawyer
  4. 4. March 5, 2007 12:31 pm Link

    That’s a neat website. Anyway, I was thinking the same thing as 110phil. If I’m interpreting everything correctly, there’s only been one sale for 10 shares and the price has dropped since this post was made:

    — stu_spivack
  5. 5. March 5, 2007 4:20 pm Link

    Stephen, as a responsible journalist aren’t you supposed to disclose whether you have a financial interest in this “stock pick” ? How many contracts of 2008DEM.NOM.RICHRDSN, 2008.DEM.VP.RICHARDSON or correlated (positive or negative) commodities do you hold?

    ;-)

    — rafe

Add your comments...

Required

Required, will not be published

FREAK Shots:

What Does 75 Cents Do?

This week's FREAK Shot.

Photo: Justin Smith

About Freakonomics

Stephen J. Dubner is an author and journalist who lives in New York City.

Bio | Contact

Steven D. Levitt is a professor of economics at the University of Chicago.

Bio | Contact

Their book Freakonomics has sold 3 million copies worldwide. This blog, begun in 2005, is meant to keep the conversation going. Recurring guest bloggers include Ian Ayres, Jessica Hagy, Daniel Hamermesh, Sudhir Venkatesh, and Justin Wolfers.

Annika Mengisen is the site editor.

Naked Self-Promotion

Freakonomics is bolstering book sales at airports because it’s sexy, reports TheBookseller.com -- with or without its Turkish cover.

Wikio - Top of the Blogs freakonomics
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

Buy from Amazon Learn more

Archive

Recent Posts

November 18
(21 comments)

Would a Market for Organs Punish the Poor More Than They Are Already Punished?

Below is a fascinating statement issued by Physicians for a National Health Program, “a membership organization of over 15,000 physicians [which] supports a single-payer national health insurance program.”
You should read the whole thing but, in a nutshell: The people who receive donated organs in the U.S. nearly always have health insurance, while a significant fraction [...]

November 18
(30 comments)

Larry Summers for Treasury Secretary

Larry Summers
There is a lot of speculation about whether President-elect Barack Obama will choose Larry Summers to be his Treasury Secretary. But some people are openly opposing Summers’s appointment, in part because of controversial comments he made about women in science.
It’s a close question, but I’m hoping that Obama appoints Summers. I have three reasons:
First, [...]

November 18
(12 comments)

Boston Legal Way Classier Than Beauty and the Geek?

Thanks to all the readers who wrote in last week with news that Freakonomics was mentioned on the TV show Boston Legal.
It happened at the end, when the William Shatner character and the James Spader character were having their ritual end-of-the-episode scotch, musing about law and the world.
Alan Shore (Spader): Well, it’s possible [...]

November 18
(25 comments)

Is France Due for Riots?

Photo: cicilief In my last post, I offered several reasons why the urban riot has gone out of style in the U.S.
However, France will not be spared the sword. I predict that the world will watch French cities light up in youth unrest in 2009, 2010 at the latest … 2011 for sure.
I have been [...]

November 18
(129 comments)

A Beet Paradox

Photo: Darwin Bell
Beets are the new broccoli. Or at least they will be after Obama takes office on January 20, as the president-elect recently revealed his distaste for this vitamin-laden root vegetable. And Obama is not alone: Even as beet salads have become popular in trendy eateries, most American kids I know also reject the [...]

Stuff We Weren't Paid to Endorse

1. Go to Hulu.com. 2. Choose Arrested Development. 3. Start with Season 1 and then watch every episode of all three seasons. 4. You can thank me later. (SJD)

I can scarcely tell a scarlet tanager from Scarlett O’Hara, but The Life of the Skies had me transfixed from the first page. Jonathan Rosen -- who happens to be a friend of mine -- writes with astounding insight, wit, and compassion. The story he tells here is the best kind of odyssey, an outward journey that ends up highlighting the beauty and daring that live inside of us. Here's a Times review of the book, and here's an earlier blog post about the book and the power of suggestion. (SJD)

Even if you don’t have a son fighting in Iraq, even if you don’t read poetry, even if you think you are immune to the power of a mother’s lament – pick up The Warrior and read it right away. Fran Richey has written some of the most powerful stories I’ve ever encountered. It is obvious that her life was changed by living these poems; yours may well be changed by reading them. (SJD)

From the Opinion Blogs

Necessary Steps
Inching Along the Edge of the World

In his last walk of the series, the author manages to avoid stepping out into thin air.

Abstract City
New York Cheat Sheets

All New Yorkers develop tricks that allow them to stay ahead of the pack in daily life. Here I offer some of mine in a couple of handy charts.

Feeds

  • Subscribe to the RSS Feed
  • Subscribe to the Atom Feed