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The Church Effect on Voters, and the History of Prediction Markets

Photo taken from Wolfgang Staudt and Daniel Morrison. Going to church probably causes you to vote, and election betting markets are nothing new. That’s the word from a pair of interesting new working papers. The first, by Alan Gerber, Jonathan Gruber, and Daniel M. Hungerman, makes clever use of a shock to the system — […] Read More »





Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

My latest column in the W.S.J. assesses whether Intrade’s political prediction markets have been distorted by market manipulation: Over recent weeks we’ve observed a pattern of large orders for Sen. McCain on Intrade … executed at times when liquidity is particularly scarce. These orders have caused markets to shift sharply, often against the broader political […] Read More »





Prediction Markets on the Veep Race

Here’s The New York Times shortlist for the vice president. Here’s a similar list from the Wall Street Journal. But there are some bigger differences of opinion with political prediction markets, which I reviewed in my latest Wall Street Journal column. Let me give you the highlights. First, on the Democratic side: “… prediction-market traders […] Read More »





Political Prediction Markets: Webcast for the Uninitiated

Very few readers of this blog are strangers to political prediction markets. But if you are new to this and interested in learning more, here’s some help: A podcast of a talk I gave at the recent CFA Institute annual conference in Vancouver. Or if you prefer to see the video and slides as well, […] Read More »





Prediction Markets in Science

In a short piece in the latest Science journal, about the Promise of Prediction Markets, we provide a short review of the literature on prediction markets — how and why they work, and the accumulated empirical evidence. But our key point is public policy: Unfortunately, however, current federal and state laws limiting gambling create significant […] Read More »





Progress on Prediction Markets

One of the real barriers to widespread adoption of prediction markets by U.S. corporations has been a murky legal environment. Are prediction markets legitimate business tools, an alternative set of securities markets requiring SEC regulation, illegal betting markets, allowable games of skill, or something else altogether? Fortunately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is stepping up […] Read More »





Prediction Markets at Google: A Guest Post

In my last post, I promised to say a bit more about prediction markets at Google. Google has been running internal prediction markets for a couple of years, and Eric Zitzewitz and I were fortunate enough to team up with Google whiz Bo Cowgill to analyze these markets. Ask any economist about the “theory of […] Read More »





Prediction Markets in New Orleans: A Guest Post

Here’s the second installment from our newest guest poster, Justin Wolfers. His first post can be found here. This weekend is the annual gabfest of the American Economic Association, running in New Orleans from Thursday through Sunday. It’s an econ-stravaganza, with dozens of parallel sessions running on just about every topic (the full program is […] Read More »