Was There Insider Trading on DSK News?

...(Photo by Harold Cunningham/Getty Images) A month ago, we ran a post featuring a handful of the latest odds on Intrade, including the chances (84% at the time)...

A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?

...An anonymous Intrade investor poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into McCain futures, inflating the market’s prediction that Sen. McCain would win the presidency, an internal Intrade investigation has...

America’s Best Pundit: Economix vs. Freakonomics

...out whether his readers are smarter than the InTrade prediction market. Let me offer Leonhardt a friendly Economix vs. Freakonomics bet. I’m willing to bet him the market is smarter...

What’s the Probability That Romney Is Leading in California? A Guest Post

...it builds a better bridge to the prediction markets. Just after the poll was announced, Intrade had Romney’s probability of winning in California as 94 percent (pretty close to the...

Biden's Prediction: Inside Information or Pure Bluster?

...bluster is nothing but bluster. Or maybe he knows something that no one else knows? At Dublin-based InTrade, meanwhile, where it is legal to bet on politics, Biden could make...

The Folly of Prediction: Full Transcript

...markets like InTrade, based in Dublin, where you can place a bet on, say, whether any country that currently uses the Euro will drop the Euro by the end of...

Gambling on the Go

...to lay down a few bets on those developments? Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app. Given the...

Picking the Next President: What Are the Odds?

...Intrade.com, whose markets had shifted last week to install John McCain as the new favorite. Why start there? Political insiders are known to follow the Intrade market closely, partly because...

McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters

...of Barack Obama on InTrade. This is news. It is perhaps not so surprising to see McCain/Palin get a big convention/Palin-novelty bump in opinion polls, for such polls merely mirror...

A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age: A Guest Post From David Pennock

Photo: iStockphoto Collection David Pennock is one of the smartest guys I know.  As a scientist at Yahoo! Research, he’s on the bleeding edge of computer scientists working...