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For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and user-friendly as anything I’ve seen: Predictify. You can wager on standing bets (who will be the Yankees’ next manager, e.g.) or “tap collective wisdom” (I […] Read More »
We’ve blogged quite a bit about prediction markets. Now, some very prominent economists (including four Nobel prize winners) have come together to release a joint statement asking the U.S. government to make it easier for researchers to create them. While the statement argues the merits of prediction markets extremely cogently, and while I’m completely in […] Read More »
Last weekend, I went to New York Comic Con with my 14-year-old nephew. As someone who’s never been heavily into superheroes, manga, anime, or gaming, I found it utterly fascinating. Gary Coleman was there, signing autographs (huh?), and I ran into a guy I knew from grad school, Roland Kelts, who has just published a […] Read More »
Who doesn’t love a good prediction market? The Economist does and so does Wired — and we certainly do too, as evidenced here and here. Here is a new blog about prediction markets and here is the famous Iowa Electronic Market, which will be a very busy place as the upcoming elections unfold. And who […] Read More »
My friends over at Tradesports are catching some heat. Tradesports is an online prediction market that allows you to make bets on all sorts of unusual outcomes. A controversy is brewing, though, over the outcome of a contract on whether North Korea would have a missile launch before July 31. Reading the newspapers, you might […] Read More »
[MUSIC: Ken Morrison, “Hummingbird Highway”] SJD NARR: Hey podcast listeners. This is Stephen Dubner, your host. This episode is about failure. We originally put it out last year but in case you failed to listen then — see what I did there? — we’re giving you another chance. And if you did hear it before: […] Read More »
This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Failure Is Your Friend.“ [MUSIC: Phil Symonds, “Spring Delight”] Stephen J. DUBNER: Um, so Levitt, you’re a fairly successful fellow. Steve LEVITT: Thank you. DUBNER: I’m just curious — have you succeeded at everything you’ve ever done? LEVITT: No, I’ve mostly failed at everything I’ve ever […] Read More »
Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of the American Civics Exchange, writes to let us know that the exchange has recently added cash prizes to their political prediction markets and is currently running two parallel government shutdown prediction markets, allowing for an interesting experiment:
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At American Civics Exchange, we’ve just begun to implement cash prizes in our political prediction market (a sort of interim maneuver on our way to regulated exchange-traded futures).
For the government shutdown, we’re running two parallel markets – one in which traders buy and sell different shutdown end dates (with play money), yielding an implied odds curve and consensus prediction (below), and another in which traders simply log their best guess as to exact date and time of resolution (with no visibility into others’ guesses), with the closest prediction winning the real-money pot.