Prediction Markets in Science

...this illustrious list of 21 co-authors didn’t lower my Stiglitz number, but then remembered that Joe is a prediction market skeptic (despite his earlier scientific writings on futures markets)....

Can Bail Bond Dealers Reduce Discrimination? A Guest Post

Adam Liptak has an excellent article in the Times that looks at an example of American exceptionalism: the Bail Bond Dealer. This really is a pariah industry. As...

A New Prediction Market for the Masses

...For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive,...

If There Were a Prediction Market for Events That Are Likely to Become "Talk of the Town" Articles …

I’d go long on the following: Mark Oppenheimer, who writes the “Beliefs” column about religion for The New York Times, and who is a frequent writer for Slate...

Prediction Markets on the Veep Race

...prediction markets, which I reviewed in my latest Wall Street Journal column. Let me give you the highlights. First, on the Democratic side: “… prediction-market traders are moving sharply towards...

Progress on Prediction Markets

...One of the real barriers to widespread adoption of prediction markets by U.S. corporations has been a murky legal environment. Are prediction markets legitimate business tools, an alternative set...

How Much Does the President Really Matter? (Rebroadcast)

...of the things we can do is we can look at how each candidate in each presidential election was doing in the political prediction markets. And so therefore we know...

Predicting the End of the Government Shutdown

...our political prediction market (a sort of interim maneuver on our way to regulated exchange-traded futures). For the government shutdown, we’re running two parallel markets – one in which traders...

How Much Does the President Really Matter?: Full Transcript

...prediction markets where people can lay bets on everything from sporting events to natural disasters to political elections.  Explain how they work and what they can tell us about the...

America’s Best Pundit: Economix vs. Freakonomics

...out whether his readers are smarter than the InTrade prediction market. Let me offer Leonhardt a friendly Economix vs. Freakonomics bet. I’m willing to bet him the market is smarter...