Is It Time to Name This Recession?

...As evidenced by this chart from the betting site Intrade, the probability of Slumdog Millionaire winning the Oscar for Best Picture has risen over the past two months right...

A Modest, Rational Proposal

...argue about; anyway…) Kristof begins by writing that “the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record” in predicting electoral outcomes “is not a human but rather Intrade, a political betting...

The Nobel Prize in Economics

...few weeks, just in case they win. Many of these economists have no chance whatsoever of winning. 4) Both Ladbrokes and InTrade allow betting on who will win the Economics...

FREAK-est Links

...What’s next in public transportation? Urban gondolas? The most expensive textbook ever. Osama Bin Laden on InTrade: you could have made a fortune. Maybe. Someone actually yelled “Stop...

R.I.P. John Delaney, Prediction Market Entrepreneur

...market, InTrade (and before that, TradeSports). John, or his data, and sometimes his stories, have long graced the pages of this blog, including this Q&A with Dubner. His colleagues know...

Middle East Despot Watch

...I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a...

Witches to Be Held Accountable for Bad Predictions; Why Only Them?

...wayward predictions, I will gladly join the throng. Until then: no deal. InTrade is an example of a prediction market that punishes bad predictions. Unfortunately, participation is voluntary. Wouldn’t it...

Predicting the Midterm Elections: A Freakonomics Quorum

...taking seriously.? InTrade says that the Dems are only a?one-in-eight to retain control, while uber-pundit?Nate Silver says there’s only a?one-in-five chance they retain control.? And Nate is?telling anyone who will...

Predicting the Outcome of Tomorrow's Midterm Election

...own, but I find it interesting that the prediction it yields matches almost perfectly with the market prediction at Intrade.com.? As I write this, the market thinks there is a...

How Much Does the President Really Matter?: Full Transcript

...Presidency.  WOLFERS: So you can actually go to a fairly sophisticated websites.  My favorite is Intrade.com where there’s a large amount of trading on what’s going to happen on the next...