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How Much Does the President Really Matter?: Full Transcript

[Female voice] Hail to the Chief, it’s Freakonomics Radio from American Public Media and WNYC.  Here’s your host Stephen Dubner  Stephen J. DUBNER:  I’ve got a question for you but you’re not going to like it.  Most people, if you ask them this question, their heads explode, they sputter, they swear, they tell you you’re a […] Read More »





Predicting the Outcome of Tomorrow's Midterm Election

The first academic paper I ever published was an empirical analysis of the “midterm gap” in American politics. (I couldn’t find an ungated version, but it’s not really worth reading anyway!) Read More »





Predicting the Midterm Elections: A Freakonomics Quorum

This year’s midterm elections promise to be a bit more eventful than usual, with predictions of seismic change in Congress and in many statehouses, most of it in a blue-to-red direction. But predictions aren’t elections; and even if the predictions hold true, what happens next? Read More »





Biden's Prediction: Inside Information or Pure Bluster?

Vice President Joe Biden says he’s willing to place a bet that Democrats will retain their majorities in the House and Senate. But is that a smart idea? Read More »





Gambling on the Go

Intrade’s new app. Read More »





A March Surprise?

During the 2008 presidential election, a lot of people — myself included — wondered if some sort of October Surprise might be launched. None were. In the U.K., however, Conservative leader David Cameron — the likely winner, per the prediction markets, in the yet-to-be called election — has just unleashed a doozy: his wife Samantha is expecting the couple’s fourth child. Read More »





How to Become an Insta-Expert: A Confession

Using the prediction markets to become an insta-expert in just about anything. Read More »





An Economist’s View of the New Oscar Voting

Sunday’s Oscar night will be different. First, there are now ten nominees for best picture. But perhaps more importantly, the voting system has changed. Read More »