R.I.P. John Delaney, Prediction Market Entrepreneur

...market, InTrade (and before that, TradeSports). John, or his data, and sometimes his stories, have long graced the pages of this blog, including this Q&A with Dubner. His colleagues know...

Heart + Mind? Or Just Heart? Experiments in Aid Effectiveness (And a Contest!)

...their money where their mouth is regarding their predicted results, but we could also generate market predictions about likely efficacy of different ideas. Sort of like the beloved Intrade. (R.I.P...

Is Mitt Romney Less Well-Known Than He Was in 2007?

...neck and neck with Perry. But according to predictions market Intrade (my favorite source for campaign odds), he now has a sizable lead over the Texas governor. Romney’s chances of...

Today's Link Bait

...Guess which governor wants to spring non-violent drug users from prison? (HT: Ivan Kronenfeld) Will the U.S. get its own InTrade to all betting on Presidential elections? A...

Odds of a Double Dip: A Sampling of Opinions. Plus, Wolfers on Twitter

...condition as poor: http://t.co/j1kJsAE 78% say getting worse: http://t.co/5zIGdzx 4 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Inflation expectations coming down sharply: http://t.co/eAfBO3l 5 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Intrade suggests rising...

Prediction Markets on the Debt Ceiling, U.S. Credit Downgrade

...Over at Intrade, there are two “hot” markets involving the odds that Congress will raise the U.S. debt ceiling. – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before...

The Latest Odds on Palin, Ahmadinejad, Strauss-Kahn, and … Another Recession?

...Photo: david_shankbone Interesting browsing these days on the prediction market InTrade, which is still mourning the loss of its founder John Delaney (a man I very much enjoyed knowing...

Prediction Markets vs. Super Crunching: Which Can Better Predict How Justice Kennedy Will Vote?

...behind their predictions (as with intrade.com). And the statistical predictions could probably be improved if they relied on more recent data and controlled for more variables. But we are bound...

“Billionaires Vs. Millionaires”: Five Things You Don’t Know About the NFL Labor Standoff

...lockout (Vegas and InTrade think so, too), but with so much money on the table, I’d be surprised if it lasted very long. There are 9 billion reasons to reach...

What Do You Mean by the ‘R-Word’? A Guest Post

...There’s been plenty of talk in recent weeks that a recession is coming (or that we are already in recession). Indeed, the latest reading from InTrade.com suggests that there...