Heart + Mind? Or Just Heart? Experiments in Aid Effectiveness (And a Contest!)

...their money where their mouth is regarding their predicted results, but we could also generate market predictions about likely efficacy of different ideas. Sort of like the beloved Intrade. (R.I.P...

The Latest Odds on Palin, Ahmadinejad, Strauss-Kahn, and … Another Recession?

...Photo: david_shankbone Interesting browsing these days on the prediction market InTrade, which is still mourning the loss of its founder John Delaney (a man I very much enjoyed knowing...

Today's Link Bait

...Guess which governor wants to spring non-violent drug users from prison? (HT: Ivan Kronenfeld) Will the U.S. get its own InTrade to all betting on Presidential elections? A...

How Much Does the President Really Matter? (Rebroadcast)

...WOLFERS: So you can actually go to fairly sophisticated websites. My favorite is Intrade.com where there’s a large amount of trading about what’s going to happen on the next U.S....

Is Mitt Romney Less Well-Known Than He Was in 2007?

...neck and neck with Perry. But according to predictions market Intrade (my favorite source for campaign odds), he now has a sizable lead over the Texas governor. Romney’s chances of...

Odds of a Double Dip: A Sampling of Opinions. Plus, Wolfers on Twitter

...condition as poor: http://t.co/j1kJsAE 78% say getting worse: http://t.co/5zIGdzx 4 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Inflation expectations coming down sharply: http://t.co/eAfBO3l 5 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Intrade suggests rising...

Prediction Markets on the Debt Ceiling, U.S. Credit Downgrade

...Over at Intrade, there are two “hot” markets involving the odds that Congress will raise the U.S. debt ceiling. – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before...

Massachusetts Senate Race Update

...In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate...

“Billionaires Vs. Millionaires”: Five Things You Don’t Know About the NFL Labor Standoff

...there’ll be a lockout (Vegas and InTrade think so, too), but with so much money on the table, I’d be surprised if it lasted very long. There are 9 billion...

What Do You Mean by the ‘R-Word’? A Guest Post

...There’s been plenty of talk in recent weeks that a recession is coming (or that we are already in recession). Indeed, the latest reading from InTrade.com suggests that there...