A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age: A Guest Post From David Pennock

...up to. (And if you want more, he writes the always-interesting Oddhead Blog). A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age By David Pennock Prediction markets are a boon...

A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney

Prediction markets. Are there any other two words that couple as nicely as those, at least to readers of this blog? The promise of a prediction market is simple and...

The Folly of Prediction (Ep. 41)

...they’ll typically try to answer them, just because they want to be heard. But in a prediction market most people don’t speak up. So in most of these prediction markets...

The Folly of Prediction

...University argues that prediction markets are the way to go.   + Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University and an avowed advocate of prediction markets, argues that such...

Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

...of relative political calm. … Prediction markets assessing the fate of important swing states did not mirror these movements. … Alternative prediction markets, including BetFair, British sports books, or play-money...

An Interesting New Prediction Market

Who doesn’t love a good prediction market? The Economist does and so does Wired — and we certainly do too, as evidenced here and here. Here is a new blog...

Prediction Markets in New Orleans: A Guest Post

...with Cowgill, the Google whiz who set up an amazing set of prediction markets within Google. We use these prediction markets to track very precisely how information flows within the...

Prediction Markets vs. Super Crunching: Which Can Better Predict How Justice Kennedy Will Vote?

One of the great unresolved questions of predictive analytics is trying to figure out when prediction markets will produce better predictions than good old-fashion mining of historic data. I think...

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

...customers. But all that may be about to change. The North American Derivatives Exchange has proposed to run political prediction markets in the U.S. which would be regulated by the...